Bitcoin gained 0.6% to $59,800 at the start of the week, while Solana rose about 2%, though derivatives positioning and technical structures continue to point to ongoing downside risk.
The crypto market remains in a vulnerable position heading into month-end, with BTC still below $60,000 and ETH trading under $1,600. Bitcoin has now fallen more than 50% from its October peak, with analysts warning that additional downside may still emerge in the months ahead.
Despite the broader weakness, BTC managed a modest gain of 0.6% since midnight UTC, hovering near $59,800. However, the overall market structure remains tilted bearish.
Solana has rebounded after briefly hitting its lowest level since late 2023 earlier this month, climbing more than 13% since Thursday and around 2% overnight.
U.S. equity futures also opened higher, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 1% and S&P 500 futures gaining 0.75%, although both indices remain in a broader downtrend from mid-June highs.
Derivatives positioning
Over $200 million in futures positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for the majority of losses. In the latest four-hour window, nearly $20 million in liquidations were recorded, with shorts making up most of that figure—suggesting BTC’s move back toward $60,000 surprised bearish traders.
Overall derivatives activity remains muted. Bitcoin open interest has slipped back to levels seen earlier in the month, fully reversing Friday’s brief surge to 775,000 BTC, indicating reduced leverage demand.
Ether shows a similar setup, with open interest holding near 14.2 million ETH.
Solana remains relatively elevated, with open interest at 72.7 million SOL, just below its recent peak above 76 million, signaling continued potential for volatility.
AVAX rallied more than 5% last week, diverging from bitcoin’s weakness, but open interest has continued to decline to 38.07 million tokens—its lowest since early April—raising questions about the sustainability of the move.
The 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta remains broadly bearish across major tokens. Outside of TRX, XMR, and ZEC, most top assets show negative readings, reflecting persistent sell pressure from market orders.
Volatility indicators, however, point to stabilization. The BVIV index, which tracks BTC’s 30-day implied volatility, fell 5% to 47%, pausing its recent rise and suggesting expectations for calmer conditions—often associated with gradual, spot-led moves.
Options markets remain defensive. On Deribit, BTC and ETH positioning continues to favor downside protection. The $60,000 BTC put now carries nearly $1 billion in notional open interest, close to the $1.11 billion concentrated at the $80,000 call. These levels have anchored positioning for months, with the next major downside cluster at $50,000 holding about $712 million in open interest.
In shorter-term flows, traders have been selling strangles in July 10 expiry HYPE options on Derive, a strategy that benefits from low volatility and sideways price action.
Token trends
Altcoins remain largely rangebound, tracking bitcoin as speculative appetite stays muted while traders wait for a clearer directional signal.
Privacy coins DASH and ZEC gained more than 2% on Monday following steep declines of 18%–30% over the past two weeks, pointing to a relief rebound rather than a sustained recovery.
PUMP slipped 1.5% since midnight, alongside AI token FET, which also traded lower.
CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index remains at 49/100, unchanged through most of June, reflecting a market still anchored to bitcoin’s direction.
