Bitcoin remained resilient around the $65,000 mark despite a steep decline in Nvidia and other artificial intelligence-related stocks. Analysts believe this week’s Federal Reserve decision could determine whether BTC breaks out of its long-standing range or falls back toward the lows seen in June.
The crypto market showed relative stability on Monday, even as AI-focused technology shares faced renewed selling pressure.
Bitcoin traded near $65,000, gaining about 4% since Friday, while Ethereum reached its strongest level in almost two months. At the same time, Nvidia’s 4.8% drop pressured AI-related stocks, though the broader Nasdaq stayed nearly flat as strength from major technology companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Google helped balance the losses.
However, Bitcoin’s recent strength is approaching a major test.
With the Fed’s monetary policy decision, key U.S. inflation data, and earnings reports from several technology leaders all arriving this week, analysts say these events could decide whether Bitcoin finally breaks above its months-long consolidation range or reverses lower toward June’s price levels.
Technical Signals Point to Potential Strength
Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said crypto’s ability to withstand weakness in traditional markets is an encouraging sign.
He noted that this performance supports the possibility that digital assets are starting to show some degree of separation from traditional risk assets.
Kruger said Bitcoin needs to break above $67,300 to confirm a move beyond the multi-week range that has contained prices since June. A breakout could fuel further upside, while Ethereum faces a similar resistance test near the $2,000 level.
Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, also highlighted Ethereum’s recent outperformance against Bitcoin as a positive signal for the broader crypto market. The ETH/BTC ratio, which tracks Ethereum’s value relative to Bitcoin, climbed to a three-month high on Monday.
Recovery Still Lacks Strong Confirmation
Despite the recent gains, some analysts remain cautious about Bitcoin’s outlook.
Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the rebound has not shown the level of demand typically associated with the beginning of a sustained rally.
He argued that the market is currently holding within a range rather than building the momentum needed for a breakout.
Sondergaard’s base-case scenario remains a pullback toward the $52,000–$58,000 area unless market conditions improve.
While nearly 9,000 BTC moved off exchanges over the past week, Bitcoin futures open interest declined even as prices increased. This indicates traders may be reducing exposure rather than aggressively adding bullish positions. Order-book data also continues to show signs of selling pressure.
Sondergaard said the Fed’s rate decision and its accompanying guidance will likely set the direction for risk assets on Wednesday. Investors will also monitor Thursday’s core PCE inflation report, second-quarter GDP data, earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, along with Friday’s estimated $13 billion–$14 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry.
For Nansen to become more optimistic, the firm wants to see stronger stablecoin inflows into exchanges, continued demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs, and evidence that long-term holders have stopped selling at a loss.
Until those signals emerge, Sondergaard views the latest rebound as a temporary positioning move rather than confirmation of a broader bullish trend.
