Software stocks are increasingly moving independently of bitcoin, creating an unusual break from a relationship that had persisted for years. History, however, suggests BTC may eventually move back in line with the sector.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has reached its strongest relative level against bitcoin in about a year. The ratio between IGV and BTC has risen to 0.0016.
For much of the past several years, bitcoin and software equities tended to move in the same direction. That connection began to weaken in May. IGV has slipped just 1% since the start of 2026, while bitcoin has lost around 29%.
The divergence is also visible in correlation data. The 20-day rolling correlation between the ETF and bitcoin has turned negative for the first time since May 2024.
IGV has recovered sharply from its April trough, advancing about 40%. The rebound followed a heavy selloff triggered by fears that artificial intelligence could severely disrupt the software-as-a-service industry.
The ETF now sits approximately 13% below its record high. Bitcoin is in a much weaker position, trading about 50% below its all-time peak.
The relationship had worked in reverse during the previous software downturn. When IGV plunged 40% from its late-2025 high, bitcoin also came under pressure as investors continued treating the cryptocurrency as a high-risk technology asset.
Still, earlier episodes suggest the current gap could eventually narrow. Bitcoin and software stocks have shown similar periods of negative correlation during the 2018 crypto bear market, the COVID-19 market shock in 2020 and China’s mining crackdown in the summer of 2021.
In each case, bitcoin eventually caught up with software equities and the correlation returned to positive territory.
The latest split therefore leaves two possibilities: Bitcoin could once again close the performance gap, or the divergence could signal that digital assets and technology stocks are beginning to follow fundamentally different market paths.
