Standard Chartered has initiated coverage of ENA with a $2 price target, compared with the $0.28 reference price in its report. The bank also expects Ethena’s USDe supply to rise eightfold to $40 billion by the end of 2028.
The scale of that forecast makes the buyback mechanism central to the valuation argument. The key issue is whether Ethena can expand its yield sources, grow revenue and direct enough cash toward ENA purchases to support the projected repricing.
Standard Chartered expects USDe to grow slightly faster than the broader stablecoin sector. It also projects ENA to outperform Bitcoin and Ether through 2028. These are estimates rather than guaranteed outcomes, with the projections dependent on continued protocol growth and sufficient revenue being returned to ENA through the buyback program.
Ethena Expands Beyond Its Original Yield Strategy
Ethena initially depended on the crypto basis trade to generate returns. As those yields have declined, the protocol has added DeFi strategies, institutional lending and basis trades connected to equities and commodities. Standard Chartered puts the current blended yield from these sources at 5.2%.
The expanded strategy gives Ethena access to a wider range of potential income sources, although revenue remains exposed to market conditions. Standard Chartered forecasts the tokenized-asset market will grow from $350 billion to $4 trillion by 2028. For Ethena, the important factor is whether it can capture enough of that expansion to translate broader market growth into sustainable revenue.
Ethena’s governance-approved fee switch allocates 95% of net revenue from certain business lines to ENA buybacks after USDe reaches specified supply thresholds. Under certain assumptions, Ethena estimates that a $25 billion USDe supply could generate approximately $375 million in annual buybacks.
That estimate, however, depends on two conditions: USDe must reach the specified supply level, and the relevant revenue streams must generate the expected income.
At $40 billion in USDe supply, Standard Chartered estimates that buybacks could equal roughly 23% of ENA’s market capitalization if the token price remained flat. The bank considers that ratio unsustainable and expects ENA’s price to rise, which would reduce buybacks relative to the token’s market value. The report compares the eventual ratio with Uniswap’s annual buyback rate of around 3% to 4%.
This calculation also demonstrates why the $2 target is not simply a function of projected buybacks. A flat ENA price combined with rapid USDe growth would make the buyback amount unusually large compared with the token’s circulating market value. Standard Chartered’s model instead assumes ENA appreciates alongside protocol growth, bringing the buyback ratio closer to a normalized level.
That assumption describes a potential valuation path rather than establishing that sufficient market demand will exist to absorb the buying or maintain the resulting valuation.
Ethena’s revenue could also be affected by changes in market conditions. Lower basis-trade returns, weaker activity in related markets or slower adoption of newer yield strategies could reduce the amount available for ENA repurchases. These remain risks to the forecast rather than confirmed outcomes.
Regulatory developments could introduce another variable. Rules governing stablecoins and yield-bearing dollar products may affect how these products are distributed and how much demand they attract, potentially influencing Ethena’s revenue model without directly changing Standard Chartered’s stated target.
The bank’s September 30 market snapshot placed ENA at approximately $0.27, giving the token a market capitalization of about $2.65 billion. The report said ENA had risen roughly 28% over the previous week and 77% over the previous month. The $0.28 figure represents the separate reference price used by Standard Chartered for comparison with its $2 target.
The near-term picture therefore combines strong recent price performance with a longer-term growth and buyback thesis. Reaching the assumptions behind the $2 target would require USDe adoption, diversified yield generation and revenue-funded buybacks to develop as projected. If supply expansion or revenue growth falls short, the underlying assumptions would also face greater pressure.
