Bitcoin has carried its recent trading pattern into the new quarter, with BTC remaining confined to the $82,000-$85,000 range after more than a week of sideways price action.
The cryptocurrency briefly moved above $85,000 on Wednesday after a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation reading reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. The breakout failed to stick, however, and spot bitcoin ETFs offered little support as flows turned negative.
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw $148.7 million in net outflows Wednesday, according to SoSoValue. The result ended a nine-day inflow streak that brought in $3.08 billion, the largest dollar-denominated run of ETF inflows this year.
The pace of buying had already slowed before the streak came to an end. Daily inflows peaked at nearly $1 billion on Sept. 21 and declined steadily afterward. Bitfinex analysts said bitcoin needs stronger ETF demand to overcome the supply positioned above the market.
“Daily pace remains the key determinant for clearing overhead supply,” the analysts said.
The slowdown is also reflected in Bitfinex’s Absorption-to-Emission Ratio (BAER). The indicator compares the amount of BTC purchased by ETFs with the roughly 450 BTC generated by miners each day. BAER fell from 25.6x on Sept. 21 to 1.8x on Sept. 29.
Bitfinex estimates that about 1.39 million BTC of breakeven supply is concentrated between $84,000 and $86,500. The analysts said BAER would need to return toward 5.0x, equivalent to approximately $190 million of daily ETF purchases, for that supply to be absorbed.
Bond Market Adds to Uncertainty
The bond market remains a key macro risk for bitcoin and other risk assets. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, warned that continued weakness in bonds could quickly spread across financial markets.
“The persistence of the bond sell-off is a very worrying sign, capable of triggering a sell-off across all markets almost overnight,” Kuptsikevich said in an email.
He noted that stress in traditional financial markets has historically produced periods of strength for crypto, but said it is difficult to know when caution could give way to panic.
Select Altcoins Outperform
While bitcoin struggled to break from its range, several altcoins posted sizable gains.
Stacks’ STX jumped about 26% over 24 hours to around $0.39, placing it among the strongest large-cap performers. The rally coincided with Stacks founder Muneeb Ali taking over as CEO of Stacks Labs as the project seeks to expand adoption of its bitcoin staking products.
Midnight’s NIGHT rose roughly 23% to $0.04 over the same period. The privacy-focused token has extended its advance across several sessions and was up about 7% since midnight UTC after gaining 21% Wednesday.
Ethena’s ENA and Near Protocol’s NEAR gained approximately 11% and 10%, respectively. ENA traded near $0.27, bringing its weekly advance to more than 30%.
Quant’s QNT added around 9% to trade near $290 in some market snapshots. The token has more than tripled in a week following a series of sharp rallies and reversals.
The broader altcoin market was less uniform. Avalanche’s AVAX fell about 5% and Internet Computer’s ICP dropped roughly 4%, giving back part of Tuesday’s gains of 7% and 8.3%, respectively.
Among sector indexes, the CoinDesk DeFi Select Index rose 1% over 24 hours. The Computing Select and CoinDesk 80 indexes gained 0.3% and 0.2%, while most other indexes edged lower.
Derivatives Remain Relatively Calm
Bitcoin open interest declined to $20.9 billion from $21.8 billion, while funding rates stayed broadly stable near 3% annualized across trading venues.
On Deribit, the three-month annualized basis increased from below 5% to above 6%, indicating somewhat stronger demand for leveraged long exposure.
Options markets also showed greater call activity. The 24-hour call/put ratio shifted to 83% in favor of calls from a previous 66%/34% split. One-week delta skew, meanwhile, eased to around 4% from roughly 15%.
The at-the-money volatility term structure remained in contango but moved slightly lower, with front-end volatility near 29.5% and longer-dated levels around 40% through mid-2027. The setup points to relatively subdued volatility, with traders favoring calls without paying a substantial premium for upside exposure.
Coinglass data showed about $100 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with longs and shorts accounting for roughly equal amounts. Bitcoin, ether and other assets accounted for $100 million, $51 million and $26 million in notional liquidations, respectively.
Binance’s liquidation heatmap places $84,800 among the key levels to monitor if bitcoin attempts another move higher.
