Bitcoin is nearing a technical milestone that could reinforce its recent recovery, with its key 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages close to forming a bullish alignment not seen since 2025.
Although BTC is lower today, the broader technical picture is improving. The three simple moving averages are approaching the point where the shorter-term averages will sit above the longer-term ones, creating an alignment that traders often view as evidence of strengthening momentum.
The bullish structure requires the 50-day average to remain above the 100-day, while the 100-day moves above the 200-day. The 50-day average currently stands at $79,495. The 100-day average is at $79,493 and rising toward the 200-day average at $79,539. A move above that level would complete the sequence.
“That crossover would restore the order of 50-day above 100-day above 200-day for the first time since the previous alignment formed on June 24, 2025,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, told CoinDesk.
Moving averages are commonly used to identify changes in market direction. When shorter-duration averages move above longer-duration measures, it suggests recent price action is outperforming the longer-term trend.
The developing setup follows a sharp bitcoin recovery over the past three months. BTC advanced more than 40% to $87,000 during the third quarter, although the rally has recently struggled to extend beyond roughly $85,000 as the U.S. Dollar Index continues to strengthen.
Subburaj said the latest technical development indicates that bitcoin’s recovery has remained durable.
Previous moving-average alignments show why traders are watching the current setup, but the outcomes have varied. On Oct. 27, 2020, bitcoin formed a similar structure near $13,600, which remained in place until May 2021. By then, BTC had reached a then-record high above $64,000.
A second alignment, confirmed in early November 2023, lasted until May 2024. Bitcoin more than doubled during that period, climbing from around $35,000 to $73,000.
However, the signal has also produced weaker results. The bullish alignment formed in June 2025 remained for 97 days, while bitcoin rose only from about $106,000 to $112,000. Another setup in June 2024 lasted 20 days before BTC fell approximately 10%.
“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said. Whether the signal develops into a sustained bull-market structure will depend on how bitcoin behaves afterward.
The next major test will likely come during a pullback. Subburaj said bitcoin’s ability to remain above its 50-day moving average during a correction will be more important than the crossover itself.
“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he said.
