Bitcoin slipped toward $83,800 as approximately $403.58 million worth of leveraged crypto long positions were liquidated in just one hour. The sharp liquidation wave underscores the market’s current risk-off mood and fits into Arthur Hayes’s broader thesis that an eventual AI-driven credit crisis could trigger a bailout and inject fresh liquidity into crypto.
Hayes argues that the massive expansion of AI data centers could initially put pressure on risk assets. However, if the spending boom creates enough financial stress to require government intervention, the resulting liquidity injection could ultimately provide a tailwind for Bitcoin.
The sheer size of the AI infrastructure expansion makes its financing structure increasingly important. Estimates cited in the report suggest U.S. AI infrastructure spending could reach between $2.8 trillion by 2030 and $10.3 trillion by 2032. At the same time, credit platform Atrium estimates developers have already raised at least $1.3 trillion in debt.
Hayes’s concern is not simply the amount of capital being spent. He believes the industry could eventually create more computing capacity than customers can economically support, leaving infrastructure providers with substantial debt and contractual commitments that depend on AI companies paying for reserved capacity.
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are among the major sources of expected AI demand. Hayes has noted that none of the three is profitable, while Columbia economist Stijn van Nieuwerburgh estimated that generating a 10% return on the infrastructure investment would require roughly $3.7 trillion in annual revenue by 2032.
This potential mismatch between infrastructure investment and customer economics forms the core of Hayes’s argument. The real test, he believes, will arrive when much of the newly built computing capacity comes online, potentially in late 2027 or 2028. Strong demand for AI compute at present does not necessarily mean infrastructure operators will generate enough revenue to support their financing once that capacity is available.
For Bitcoin, the potential liquidity effect would occur later. Hayes expects a credit downturn to eventually force policymakers to intervene, with the resulting excess liquidity potentially finding its way into crypto markets. But that outcome depends on a credit crisis actually developing and authorities responding with policies that expand liquidity.
Bitcoin’s recent price action demonstrates how quickly leverage can amplify stress. The report said BTC was around 33% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. The $403.58 million in long liquidations recorded as Bitcoin neared $83,800 shows the impact of forced deleveraging, although it does not establish a firm price floor or predict the size of a future decline.
An AI-related credit shock could initially hurt Bitcoin rather than help it. A broad risk-off move could push investors out of volatile assets, force leveraged traders to close positions and create additional liquidation pressure. Bitcoin would remain exposed to those dynamics even if a later bailout ultimately produced a liquidity boost.
Hayes’s overbuilding thesis would be challenged if AI companies can successfully pay for their contracted computing capacity and infrastructure projects generate sustainable returns. If customers fail to meet those commitments as new capacity arrives in late 2027 or 2028, however, Hayes expects financial stress to potentially evolve into a credit crash followed by a bailout.
Even in that scenario, Bitcoin’s potential benefit would depend on two conditions. The financial downturn would need to be serious enough to trigger government intervention, and the response would need to create liquidity that flows into crypto rather than being limited to stabilizing traditional credit markets.
Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data could also influence liquidity conditions and investor risk appetite, adding another variable to the potential path from an AI credit crisis to Bitcoin.
For now, Hayes’s view is better treated as a long-term macro thesis than a near-term trading signal. An AI infrastructure bust could ultimately become bullish for Bitcoin if financial stress leads to a liquidity-heavy bailout. Until then, the latest liquidation wave is a reminder that leverage remains a major source of downside risk in crypto.
