VanEck says the market is shifting its focus from AI deal announcements to the execution risks facing bitcoin miners pursuing new growth avenues.
After two years of repositioning themselves as AI infrastructure providers, miners are now under pressure to prove they can actually deliver on those ambitions.
In its latest report, VanEck said investor attention is moving beyond headline partnerships toward a more fundamental question: can miners finance and build the large-scale data centers required for AI workloads?
The firm estimates the sector faces an immediate funding gap of about $50 billion, with long-term capital needs potentially reaching $221 billion if expansion plans proceed as expected.
“Execution, not signing, becomes the next premium,” said analyst Griffin MacMaster and Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research. So far, only around 25% of the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) capacity leased by miners has been delivered, raising the risk of valuation pressure for companies that fall behind schedule.
The shift comes as the mining industry undergoes a structural transition. After profitability declined sharply following the 2024 halving, many operators began redirecting power resources toward AI, betting on stronger demand and higher margins from tech firms.
Core Scientific (CORZ) accelerated this shift with a multibillion-dollar hosting deal with CoreWeave, effectively transforming into an AI infrastructure player. TeraWulf (WULF), Hut 8 (HUT), Iren (IREN), and Cipher Mining (CIFR) have also moved to lease power and data center capacity to AI and HPC customers. Meanwhile, Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and CleanSpark (CLSK) are pursuing hybrid models that combine mining with AI expansion.
Despite bitcoin falling roughly 24% this year and broader crypto equities weakening, mining stocks have largely rallied. Riot is up nearly 94% year-to-date, while Cipher Mining has gained about 62%, with similar trends seen across the sector.
The AI narrative has driven strong equity performance, with investors increasingly valuing miners based on their AI potential rather than their legacy mining operations.
However, VanEck cautions that valuation remains complex, as companies sit between declining mining revenues and AI businesses that have yet to generate meaningful cash flow.
For now, the firm highlights “energized power” — operational power capacity — as the clearest valuation metric. Companies with signed AI contracts trade at more than 10 times energized power, while those still pitching future projects command lower multiples.
VanEck also expects greater focus on tenant quality, noting that partnerships with investment-grade hyperscalers could lead to lower financing costs and higher valuations compared to deals with smaller AI startups.
The report points to HIVE, Bitdeer (BTDR), Keel, and IREN as potential upside names if they secure further contracts, while MARA, CLSK, and RIOT remain more closely tied to bitcoin price movements.
Ultimately, VanEck argues the next phase for miners will be defined by execution — with success depending on their ability to finance, build, and operate large-scale infrastructure on time and within budget.
