Bitcoin is on course to post three consecutive monthly gains, potentially breaking a September pattern that has held since 2013. The rally could face a tougher test in the fourth quarter, however, with Treasury yields climbing, oil prices staying elevated and two major November events approaching.
Bitcoin has risen around 7% in September after surging 25% in August. Since 2013, every positive August was followed by a September decline. With two trading days left, a gain for the month would break that streak and give bitcoin positive monthly returns from July through September.
A September advance would also leave bitcoin up more than 40% for the third quarter, its first quarterly gain since Q3 2025.
Rising Yields Add to Q4 Risks
Bitcoin has historically delivered its strongest performance in the fourth quarter. CoinGlass data shows that the cryptocurrency has averaged a gain of roughly 77% during Q4.
Bitcoin is trading around $84,000, but the broader market environment has become less supportive. Bond yields are rising across global markets, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5.2%.
Bond-market volatility is also picking up. The MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, is above 100 and approaching its highest level so far this year.
Oil prices have added another concern, with crude holding above $90 a barrel and raising questions about renewed inflation pressure. Gold, meanwhile, dropped about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.
November Events Could Shift Market Flows
Bitcoin will also enter Q4 with two potentially important events on the calendar for November.
Anthropic is reportedly preparing for a possible November IPO. A major listing could attract investor attention and redirect capital toward the equity market, although the timing and size of the offering have yet to be finalized.
The U.S. midterm elections are another potential source of market volatility. Investors will be watching the results and assessing what they could mean for the future policy environment.
Bitcoin therefore enters the final quarter with strong historical seasonality, but also a macro backdrop that could influence liquidity and appetite for risk assets.
