Spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded their first sustained inflow streak in months, but on-chain data suggests profit-taking is already accelerating at levels typically associated with local tops.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have now posted eight consecutive days of inflows through April 23, totaling $2.1 billion, according to SoSoValue. That marks the longest streak since October 2025, when a nine-day run helped propel Bitcoin BTC to its $126,000 all-time high.
April 23 alone saw $223 million in inflows, led overwhelmingly by BlackRock’s IBIT, which accounted for roughly $167 million. Fidelity Investments’s FBTC stood out as the only major outflow on the day, shedding about $17 million.
During this stretch, bitcoin has climbed from $68,000 to around $77,000, a roughly 12% gain that has closely tracked the return of ETF demand. Since their launch, cumulative net inflows into spot ETFs have reached approximately $58 billion, with total assets rising to $102 billion—around 6.5% of bitcoin’s total market capitalization.
However, ETF flows only tell part of the story.
According to a recent Glassnode report, bitcoin has just reclaimed its “True Market Mean” near $78,100—a key on-chain metric representing the average cost basis of actively traded supply. This is the first time the level has been regained since mid-January and has historically signaled a shift away from bearish conditions toward a more constructive market phase.
The next critical level sits slightly higher. The short-term holder cost basis, currently around $80,100, reflects the average entry price of investors who have bought bitcoin over the past 155 days. A move above this level would push more than half of these holders into profit.
Historically, that transition has coincided with local tops, as short-term holders take advantage of rallies to exit positions at or near breakeven. This dynamic has already played out once during the current cycle and may be setting up again.
Glassnode data shows short-term holder realized profits have surged to roughly $4.4 million per hour. By comparison, the $1.5 million level has preceded each local top so far this year, putting current readings at nearly three times that threshold.
From a derivatives perspective, the setup remains notable. Funding rates in perpetual futures markets are still negative, indicating that short sellers are paying long positions to maintain exposure. A recent short squeeze briefly pushed bitcoin toward $78,000 before geopolitical-driven volatility reversed the move.
Another squeeze—combined with ongoing ETF inflows and signs of recovering spot demand on offshore exchanges—could provide a clear path toward the $80,000 level. The key question is whether price can sustain a breakout or if it will once again be met with selling pressure from short-term holders.
A similar pattern emerged in March, when a seven-day inflow streak coincided with a local top. This time, IBIT has accounted for the bulk of inflows, while other ETF issuers have shown mixed participation. The structure is not identical, but the resemblance is notable.
For now, ETF demand remains strong. But it may also be providing the liquidity that short-term holders need to exit. How bitcoin behaves around $80,000 could determine which force ultimately takes control.
