$100K back in view as weak jobs data lifts bitcoin sentiment
Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said Thursday’s softer U.S. employment report reinforces a constructive outlook for bitcoin, as cooling labor conditions ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy further.
He noted that bitcoin — widely seen as a barometer of liquidity and risk — had already begun reflecting the weaker data ahead of the release. After briefly falling toward a cycle low near $57,000, the asset rebounded and now looks positioned for a stronger second half of the year. Improving technicals, supportive seasonal trends, and strengthening on-chain activity could push bitcoin closer to $100,000 by year-end if current conditions persist.
U.S. hiring disappoints expectations
The U.S. economy added roughly 52,000–57,000 jobs in June, well below forecasts of around 110,000. May’s figure was also revised lower to 129,000 from an initial estimate of 172,000.
The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, slightly better than expectations of 4.3%, though the decline came alongside a drop in labor force participation to 61.5% from 61.8%.
Bitcoin held near $61,300 after the release, up about 4% over the past 24 hours.
Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures moved higher, with Nasdaq futures gaining around 0.7%, while Treasury yields edged lower across the curve.
Crypto outpaces traditional markets
Ahead of the data, cryptocurrencies were already showing relative strength. Bitcoin climbed roughly 4.5% to $61,100, with ether posting similar gains.
Solana led major tokens, rising about 10% following the launch of its first formal onchain governance system.
The employment report is expected to play a key role in shaping expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate decisions in the coming months.
Mixed signals across global markets
Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi index dropped sharply, weighed down by heavy losses in major chip stocks amid renewed concerns over AI-related demand.
Bitcoin, however, extended its recovery above $61,000. Softer inflation commentary from policymakers contributed to a weaker U.S. dollar and steadier bond markets, helping support risk assets.
Retail participation shows signs of cooling
Binance recorded more than $2 billion in net outflows over the past week, pointing to softer retail activity.
Data indicates that smaller bitcoin inflows — transactions under 1 BTC — have fallen to record lows, highlighting reduced engagement from retail traders compared to earlier cycles.
Macro trends continue to guide price action
Bitcoin traded above $60,000 during European hours as markets scaled back expectations for near-term rate hikes.
At the same time, the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar, with bitcoin showing an increasing correlation to currency movements as macro dynamics continue to drive market behavior.
Overall, weaker U.S. labor data has boosted risk appetite, helping bitcoin regain momentum and reinforcing expectations of a more supportive macro environment heading into the second half of the year.
