- Bitcoin has gained nearly 24% since Monday and has already hit the upside objective from its inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, although traders betting against BTC remain active.
- BTC reached around $79,400 on Friday, up 8.8% from midnight UTC, as the rally that began after the U.S. Treasury’s Wednesday announcement continued to accelerate. Bitcoin later settled just below $78,000.
- The Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback program helped add momentum to the move. Bitcoin has now posted gains for five consecutive days, putting it on course for its strongest weekly performance since March 2023.
- Crypto derivatives saw approximately $3.3 billion in liquidations Wednesday, followed by another $1.25 billion over the following 24 hours, CoinGlass data showed.
- The Altcoin Season Index slipped to 33 from 36 as Bitcoin’s market dominance climbed to 59.9%. However, several altcoins continued to outperform BTC. ENA rose 13% since midnight, ZEC gained 12.5%, while NEAR and LINK advanced around 8%.
- Bitcoin has moved beyond the roughly $76,000 target projected by the inverse head-and-shoulders setup that formed from the June lows. With that objective reached and RSI in overbought territory, the rally could face some short-term profit-taking.
Bitcoin Derivatives
- The Dollar Index stood at approximately 98.77, slightly below its August highs. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.43% after the tech-heavy index lagged the broader crypto market.
- Total crypto liquidations declined to about $1.24 billion over 24 hours, a 62% drop from Thursday’s peak. Short positions accounted for approximately $1.06 billion, while long liquidations totaled about $178 million. More than 152,000 traders were liquidated.
- The largest individual liquidation involved a $23.59 million BTC-USD position on Hyperliquid.
- Bitcoin’s aggregate long-to-short account ratio remained at 0.865, showing that short accounts still outnumber long accounts. Traders have bet against the rally for four consecutive sessions and have been forced out each time, leaving room for additional short-squeeze pressure.
- Overall crypto open interest climbed 6.17% to $139.37 billion. Bitcoin futures open interest increased 7.38% to $57.7 billion, while aggregate BTC open interest reached $25.06 billion, its highest level since June.
- Rising open interest indicates that traders are rebuilding leveraged positions as prices move higher rather than waiting on the sidelines.
- Bitcoin’s projected funding rate reached 0.013%, which would be its highest level since January.
- XRP saw the biggest shift in derivatives activity among major cryptocurrencies. Its 24-hour trading volume surged 139%, while open interest increased 15.5% as XRP jumped 19%.
- CryptoQuant data shows 30-day apparent spot demand has improved sharply, moving from a deficit of 206,000 BTC on July 23 to roughly negative 5,000 BTC. The indicator is now close to turning positive for the first time since Feb. 26.
- Historically, Bitcoin has produced a median 18% return over the following 60 days after apparent spot demand crosses into positive territory, with a 78% success rate, according to CryptoQuant. When the crossover occurs while MVRV remains below its 365-day moving average, the median gain rises to 23%, with an 87% success rate.
- CryptoQuant cautioned that the sample size is limited and the current indicator has not yet completed the crossover.
- The firm also noted that the comparable crossover in perpetual futures demand has provided little predictive advantage. As a result, the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rally may depend on whether spot-market demand remains strong once short covering subsides.
Altcoin Performance
- Ethena’s ENA surged 13% since midnight to about $0.132, taking its 24-hour gain to roughly 42% and its weekly advance to 56%.
- The move followed Ethena’s announcement of a $1 billion secured warehouse facility with FalconX. The arrangement uses assets backing USDe for overcollateralized institutional lending and reduces reliance on crypto basis trading. ENA’s trading volume reached approximately $622 million.
- Zcash climbed 12.5% to around $640, lifting its weekly gain to 31.5% as privacy-focused tokens benefited from renewed market demand.
- NEAR gained 8.6% to about $1.92, while Fetch.ai rose 5.59%, with AI-related cryptocurrencies finally joining the broader rally after underperforming for much of August.
- Chainlink advanced 8.2% to approximately $11.56, taking its weekly gain to around 32% and placing LINK among the strongest large-cap performers during the latest crypto rally.
