Bitcoin news: BTC ended Thursday below its 200-day EMA ahead of the US jobs report. Historical data shows Bitcoin gained after 52 of 104 releases but declined following each of the previous three reports.
Bitcoin is approaching Friday’s October US employment report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 6, after closing the previous session at $76,088. The cryptocurrency has now slipped beneath its 200-day moving average for the first time since August 19, raising concerns about its broader market trend.
Bitcoin’s historical response to US employment data has been almost evenly divided between gains and losses. However, its performance following the three most recent reports has consistently favored sellers.
According to Coinspeaker’s review of 104 employment releases since January 2018, BTC traded higher 24 hours after 52 reports. Its seven-day performance was weaker following the latest three releases, with losses of 3.3% in August, 5.2% in September and 3.7% in October.
The broader market environment is adding to the pressure. Bitcoin is hovering near $76,160, representing a 5.1% decline over 24 hours. Thursday’s technology stock sell-off triggered a sharp retreat from $80,918 to $75,208, taking BTC to its lowest level since September 16. Market sentiment also deteriorated, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling from 50 to 28 in just one day.
The upcoming employment report could further influence expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. On Polymarket, traders currently estimate a 69% chance of a rate increase on December 9, down from 80% a day earlier.
The key question now is whether the latest jobs figures could trigger another Bitcoin decline or help the cryptocurrency recover above its 200-day EMA.
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance Following US Employment Reports
Bitcoin has historically shown no clear directional pattern immediately after employment data is released. Its performance over the following week offers a slightly stronger indication, although the difference between gains and losses remains limited.
The analysis examined Binance hourly BTC candles around the 8:30 a.m. ET release time for each report, using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official publication archive to identify the dates. The October 2025 report was excluded because the government shutdown prevented its release.
The findings show the following historical performance:
- First hour: BTC recorded gains after 58 of the 104 reports, with an average movement of 0.66% in either direction.
- 24 hours later: Bitcoin finished higher after 52 releases. Its median return was 0.07%, while the average price fluctuation was 1.92% in either direction.
- Seven days later: BTC ended higher following 57 reports, with a median gain of 0.67%.
Bitcoin’s 2026 performance also reveals a noticeable change in momentum. During the year’s first seven jobs reports, the cryptocurrency posted weekly gains after every release, ranging between 0.5% and 7.6%.
That positive pattern disappeared in August. Bitcoin subsequently recorded losses one week after each of the next three employment reports.
However, these figures should be interpreted cautiously. A seven-day measurement period allows other economic developments and market events to influence prices, making it difficult to attribute the entire move to employment data.
The largest 24-hour decline in the historical sample followed the December 2021 jobs report, when Bitcoin dropped 17.1% amid a weekend liquidation event involving leveraged positions.
How Could the Jobs Report Influence the Fed’s December Decision?
The employment figures arrive at a time when expectations for Federal Reserve policy are shifting toward a possible rate increase.
At its October 28 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged within the 3.75%–4.00% range. The decision passed by a 10–2 vote, with both dissenting members favoring a 25-basis-point increase.
However, Thursday’s market sell-off prompted traders to reassess the possibility of tighter monetary policy. Kalshi’s probability of a December rate hike declined by 10 percentage points in 24 hours, while the odds of the Fed maintaining current rates increased from 22% to 32%.
Stronger employment figures could strengthen expectations for another rate increase, potentially putting additional pressure on Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.
On the other hand, weaker labor market data could give policymakers more justification to postpone further tightening. This could ease concerns about borrowing costs and provide some support for cryptocurrency prices.
BTC Price Analysis: Important Levels to Watch for a Recovery
Bitcoin remains below its 200-day exponential moving average, suggesting that buyers have yet to regain control of the market.
The indicator currently sits near $76,540, approximately $380 above BTC’s prevailing price. This technical level is especially significant because Bitcoin had maintained daily closes above it since breaking out in August.
A sustained recovery above the 200-day EMA could help improve the short-term outlook. However, further declines could expose additional support zones.
Resistance levels:
- $76,540: The 200-day EMA, representing Bitcoin’s immediate recovery hurdle.
- $79,839: The 50-day EMA and the next significant resistance area.
- $81,196: Wednesday’s high, which could become a further upside target.
Support levels:
- $75,208: Thursday’s low and the first important downside level.
- $74,968: The September 15 low, offering another potential support zone.
- $72,598: The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which could become relevant if selling pressure intensifies.
Historically, US employment reports have not consistently determined Bitcoin’s immediate price direction. Instead, the cryptocurrency’s ability to recover the 200-day EMA and maintain that level through the weekly close could provide a more meaningful indication of its next move.
If BTC remains below this technical threshold, continued selling pressure could strengthen the bearish outlook. A recovery above it, however, would offer traders an early indication that buyers are attempting to regain momentum.
