Bitcoin has spent the week trading within a narrow $59,000–$60,000 range, echoing a period of consolidation seen in 2024. This time, however, the range is forming beneath key support levels within a broader downtrend, increasing the risk that a breakdown could send prices toward $40,000.
BTC has now remained in this tight band for five straight days. While such sideways action is common, analysts caution that the current setup is more fragile due to its position in a weakening market.
In 2024, bitcoin consolidated for months between $55,000 and $70,000, with occasional breakouts in both directions. The key difference now, according to FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich, is that the current range sits below former support zones and under both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Both averages are trending lower, reinforcing a bearish structure and pointing to continuation rather than a base for recovery.
Kuptsikevich warned that this type of consolidation is risky for bulls, noting that last year’s range developed during an uptrend, whereas the current one is forming in a declining market. If the range breaks lower, he sees the next meaningful support near $40,000.
On-chain signals support this cautious outlook. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has identified signs of capitulation among long-term holders, with investors increasingly selling at a loss. While such phases have historically offered attractive entry points, they often coincide with near-term downside pressure.
Market activity also reflects subdued demand, with active addresses and transaction volumes lingering near the lower end of recent ranges during the downturn.
Additional pressure is coming from Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. Its preferred stock, STRC, recently dropped to a record low near $71, while its common shares fell 25% over the past week to their lowest level since February 2024.
The company has indicated it may sell more than $1 billion worth of bitcoin to support its finances, marking a significant shift from founder Michael Saylor’s long-standing “never sell” stance. Management now has the authority to sell from reserves without requiring separate board approvals.
The possibility of a large seller entering an already thin market is adding to investor unease. Meanwhile, macro conditions remain unfavorable, with a stronger U.S. dollar continuing to weigh on bitcoin and other dollar-denominated assets.
Bitcoin is currently on track to end the second quarter down around 13%, while U.S. equities are heading toward one of their strongest quarters in years, driven by optimism around AI spending. This divergence underscores a broader rotation of capital away from crypto and into traditional markets.
