Bitcoin Struggles Amid Inflation Fears While Clarity Act Passage Odds Fall to 38%

Bitcoin remained under pressure on Thursday as a mix of geopolitical tensions, rising interest rates, and fresh regulatory uncertainty pushed investors toward a more cautious stance. The crypto market weakened as oil prices climbed and confidence in the passage of the Clarity Act declined.

The largest cryptocurrency was trading near $65,500, falling about 0.7% from the start of the UTC session and extending its decline from Wednesday’s high of roughly $66,700. The broader market also moved lower, with Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and other major digital assets facing similar selling pressure.

Oil prices added to market concerns, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the NYMEX rising to $88.60 per barrel, the highest level since June 11. The increase marks a significant recovery from recent lows below $70 and has renewed fears that rising energy costs could fuel another wave of inflation.

A fresh inflationary push could make it harder for central banks to ease monetary policy, potentially delaying interest rate cuts and creating additional pressure on risk-sensitive assets.

Bond markets showed signs of changing expectations, with the U.S. two-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.31%, its highest point since February 2025. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.66%, reaching levels not seen since May, according to TradingView data.

Higher Treasury yields can reduce demand for non-income-generating assets such as Bitcoin and gold because investors may shift toward bonds offering stronger returns. This often leads to reduced exposure to speculative investments during periods of rising borrowing costs.

Geopolitical risks also weighed on sentiment after reports indicated that the U.S. military deployed a B-1 long-range bomber to strike locations linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The move marked a notable escalation and fueled concerns that U.S. military involvement could expand further.

Regulatory concerns added to the market pressure after several Senate Democrats criticized the latest draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, arguing that it still lacks sufficient ethics standards and other important protections.

The political uncertainty quickly affected prediction markets, with Polymarket traders lowering the estimated probability of the Clarity Act passing from 46% to 38%.

The updated version of the legislation was introduced by Senate Republicans on Wednesday and includes an ethics provision supported by the White House and President Donald Trump. Senator Bernie Moreno described the provision as one of the strongest ethics measures ever included in U.S. legislation.