Bitcoin has historically shown little sustained sensitivity to rising bond yields, even though sharp increases in bond-market volatility can create short-term pressure on the cryptocurrency.
Higher global yields are often interpreted as bearish for BTC because bonds become more attractive relative to assets that generate no income. But bitcoin’s historical price data does not show a consistent relationship between the cryptocurrency and government bond yields.
That relationship came under scrutiny Wednesday after the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed 15 basis points to more than 5.13%, its highest level since 2007. The rise also coincided with higher yields across several major international bond markets.
The traditional argument is straightforward: when yields rise, investors face a higher opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets such as bitcoin and gold. Capital could consequently move toward bonds.
However, the historical correlation between bitcoin and yields remains weak.
According to CoinDesk’s analysis, the 90-day correlation between bitcoin’s daily returns and changes in the U.S. 10-year yield was -0.18. The correlation stood at -0.06 over 180 days and -0.03 over a year, all readings that indicate a relationship close to zero. BTC has also displayed limited correlation with yields in other major economies.
A Potential Diversification Role
Bitcoin’s weak connection to Treasury yields can make it a different source of portfolio exposure compared with traditional interest-rate-sensitive investments.
Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, told CoinDesk that bitcoin’s near-zero correlation with U.S. Treasury yields represents a potential portfolio benefit. She said the relationship suggests BTC does not simply trade as a duration or rates asset, with the 90-day correlation recently around -0.17 and occasionally moving even closer to zero.
Bitcoin’s longer-term gains also stand out against the rise in global yields. BTC has gained 191% since 2021 and reached a record $126,000 last October. Over the same period, 10-year yields climbed more than 500 basis points in the U.K. and France and more than 400 basis points in the U.S., Australia, Germany and Italy.
Japan’s 10-year yield increased 296 basis points, while Switzerland’s rose 105 basis points. China’s yields declined as the country continued to contend with deflation.
Bond-Market Volatility Is a Different Risk
A lack of correlation with yield levels does not mean bitcoin is immune to stress originating in fixed-income markets. A sudden jump in bond volatility can tighten financial conditions and affect risk assets even when the absolute level of yields is less important.
Treasury-market turbulence can increase credit costs, make financing more expensive and encourage investors to reduce risk. Because U.S. government bonds are central to global financial markets, a sharp volatility spike can have broader consequences.
The MOVE Index, which measures expected volatility in Treasury securities, rose 21% Wednesday to 95 points, its highest level since April 1. Bitcoin fell from around $87,200 to $83,500 during the session, although the decline also followed a strong recent rally and may have reflected a broader market pullback.
If Treasury volatility remains elevated or increases further, BTC could face additional short-term pressure despite its weak long-term correlation with bond yields.
Strong U.S. Data Lifts Global Yields
The latest rise in Treasury yields was driven mainly by stronger U.S. economic data rather than renewed fiscal concerns.
S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, reaching its highest level since July 2021. The report showed U.S. business activity expanding at its fastest pace in more than five years while inflationary pressure also increased.
The figures reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could continue raising rates following its 25-basis-point increase in September. Both the 10-year and two-year Treasury yields moved higher after the report.
The rise in yields spread across global markets. France’s yield increased by more than the U.S. 10-year yield Wednesday, while the U.K. posted a move that was nearly as large.
Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the IIF, said Italy and Greece experienced similar pressure. Brooks wrote on Substack Wednesday that strong U.S. economic data was followed by renewed concern around countries with weaker fiscal positions.
Brooks said markets have been scrutinizing heavily indebted economies for some time. According to Statista, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio was above 200% at the end of 2025, compared with 123.8% for the U.S., 115% for France, 102% for the U.K. and 100% for China.
Switzerland’s federal debt stood at just 16% of GDP. Its lower debt burden and more moderate increase in 10-year yields have contributed to views among some analysts that the Swiss franc is becoming a haven and gradually replacing the Japanese yen as a preferred carry currency.
For bitcoin, the longer-term evidence remains distinct from the bond market. Fiscal conditions, economic growth and inflation can influence yields and fiat currencies across markets, but they have not translated into a consistent long-term relationship with BTC’s price.
