Bitcoin CPI Reaction: Cooling Inflation Could Fuel a Short-Term BTC Recovery

The October U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 10, with analysts anticipating a 0.22% monthly increase in core inflation. Historical trading patterns suggest that Bitcoin has tended to perform better immediately after softer inflation readings, gaining during the first hour in 10 of the 13 instances when core CPI came in at 0.2% or below.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to publish the October inflation data at 13:30 UTC. The figures could become an important catalyst for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market as investors reassess the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.

Economists expect core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, to have increased 0.22% in October. If confirmed, this would represent a slowdown from September’s 0.33% monthly rise.

Bitcoin is trading near $74,400 after struggling to recover from Sunday’s decline to approximately $73,510, its lowest level in two months.

Inflation data has frequently triggered significant price movements in digital assets. An analysis of Bitcoin’s first-hour returns following the last 24 CPI announcements shows that the inflation reading has historically influenced the direction of its immediate market reaction.

When core CPI was 0.2% or lower, Bitcoin recorded positive hourly returns in 10 out of 13 releases. In contrast, BTC gained in only four of the 10 instances when core inflation reached at least 0.3%.

The latest inflation figures could therefore determine whether Bitcoin stages a short-term rebound or extends its recent downward trend.

October Inflation Forecasts Point to a Potential Slowdown

Economists broadly expect U.S. inflation to moderate in October, although individual forecasts differ. A Wall Street Journal survey covering 17 banks and research firms places the median headline CPI estimate at 0.25%, while the median forecast for core CPI stands at 0.22%. WSJ reporter Nick Timiraos shared the survey results on X.

The projections include:

• Headline CPI: Estimates range from 0.14% at Nomura to 0.29% at Pinebrook Capital, compared with September’s 0.65% increase.
• Core CPI: Forecasts vary between 0.13% at Nomura and 0.28% at BNP Paribas and Pinebrook Capital. September recorded a 0.33% increase.
• Annual inflation: September’s headline inflation rate was 3.7%, while core CPI stood at 2.6%.

The wide range of estimates leaves considerable uncertainty surrounding the final figures. Since the BLS reports monthly CPI changes to one decimal place, the underlying result could translate into a published reading between 0.1% and 0.3%.

A reported 0.3% increase in core CPI would suggest that inflation has not slowed substantially from September. Such an outcome could disappoint investors hoping for stronger evidence that price pressures are easing.

There is also an unusual complication in the annual comparisons. The October 2025 government shutdown prevented the BLS from publishing that month’s inflation report, making a conventional year-over-year comparison for October more difficult.

Final CPI Reading Before the December Fed Decision Could Influence Bitcoin

Tuesday’s report is particularly important because it represents the last scheduled CPI release before the Federal Reserve’s December 8–9 policy meeting.

Markets are currently assigning a high probability to another interest-rate increase. According to Polymarket data available Tuesday morning, traders are pricing in an 86.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, compared with an 11.5% probability that rates will remain unchanged.

Higher interest rates can weigh on Bitcoin by increasing the appeal of traditional investments such as government bonds and cash. Because cryptocurrencies do not generate conventional interest income, rising yields can make them less attractive to investors.

If October’s CPI figures come in below expectations, markets could reassess the likelihood of another rate increase. That shift may improve risk appetite and create favorable conditions for a Bitcoin recovery.

On the other hand, unexpectedly strong inflation could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy. This would potentially increase pressure on cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive investments.

Bitcoin’s Historical Response Shows a Stronger Performance After Cool CPI Data

Bitcoin’s price behavior across 24 inflation announcements since October 2024 provides additional context for Tuesday’s event.

The analysis uses Binance trading data covering the first 60 minutes after each CPI release, beginning at 8:30 a.m. ET. The results show that inflation announcements have generally produced greater volatility than comparable periods on regular weekdays.

Three findings stand out:

• Increased price fluctuations: Bitcoin’s median hourly trading range following CPI announcements was 1.17%, compared with 0.62% during the same hour on other weekdays.
• Moderate inflation: When core CPI increased by 0.2% or less, BTC ended the first hour higher in 10 of 13 releases, with an average return of 0.45%.
• Stronger inflation: When core CPI reached 0.3% or more, Bitcoin posted positive returns in just four of 10 instances. The average hourly return in this group was negative 0.11%.

These figures indicate that lower inflation readings have historically coincided with stronger immediate Bitcoin performance. Nevertheless, macroeconomic data is only one factor influencing cryptocurrency prices, and previous reactions do not guarantee similar outcomes.

February 12, 2025, produced the steepest hourly decline in the dataset. Core inflation rose 0.4%, and Bitcoin fell 1.9% during the following hour. A 0.3% reading in the preceding month also coincided with a 1.4% drop.

BTC Price Prediction: Will Bitcoin Hold Above $73,510?

Bitcoin remains slightly above its recent low, but technical indicators continue to reflect a bearish market structure.

BTC was trading around $74,398 on Binance, approximately 1.2% above Sunday’s low of $73,510. The cryptocurrency also remains below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating that the broader trend has yet to show a convincing recovery.

Resistance levels to monitor:

• $75,599: Monday’s high, representing the nearest immediate resistance.
• $76,481: The 200-day EMA, which could limit further upside.
• $79,128: The 50-day EMA and the next major technical barrier.

Support levels to watch:

• $74,177: Tuesday’s intraday low.
• $73,510: Sunday’s two-month low and the immediate support zone.
• $73,027: The August 21 low, which could become the next downside target if sellers regain control.

The CPI announcement could determine which of these levels Bitcoin approaches next. A softer reading may encourage buyers to push BTC toward $75,599 and potentially $76,481. However, a hotter inflation report could renew bearish pressure and expose the $73,510 support area.

Historical data also suggests that Bitcoin’s initial CPI reaction often carries into the following trading day. In 20 of the 24 releases examined, BTC continued moving in the same direction during the subsequent 24 hours as it did in the first hour.

Consequently, traders will be watching the initial market response closely. Whether inflation comes in below or above expectations could provide an important signal for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.