Bettors pushed the probability of the crypto market structure bill becoming law this year to 43%, recovering from a record low reached last week. However, the reports fueling the increase remain unverified, and no official legislative text has been made available.
Polymarket traders raised their expectations for the Clarity Act’s passage after reports suggested that President Trump had agreed to the ethics provision that had become the final obstacle in negotiations over the bill.
The prediction market’s odds of the crypto market structure bill being enacted in 2026 climbed to approximately 43% on Monday, up from 32% on Friday. The previous level represented the lowest probability since the market opened in January.
The rise followed reports claiming that lawmakers had overcome the final major disagreement after months of negotiations surrounding the legislation.
However, the latest bill language has not been shared with Democrats, according to a source familiar with the matter who spoke to CoinDesk, and no updated version has been released publicly. The White House and offices of the senators involved have not provided official comments.
The ethics provision remains the biggest unresolved issue surrounding the Clarity Act. If passed, the legislation would create the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets and define regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC.
The dispute has largely focused on rules governing whether public officials and political figures can financially benefit from crypto ventures while in office. The issue has drawn greater scrutiny due to Trump’s cryptocurrency projects, including his memecoins and his family’s involvement with World Liberty Financial, which recent disclosures showed generated millions of dollars.
The ethics language was reportedly addressed during a July 16 discussion involving Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. Lawmakers are working toward an early August Senate vote deadline.
Crypto prices continued their advance on Monday as the reports circulated. Bitcoin traded near $66,300, rising about 3% over 24 hours, while Ether and XRP gained around 4% each.
While the Clarity Act developments contributed to the positive market mood, traders largely credited the broader rally to a recovery in artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks. A rebound in major chip companies, including Samsung and SK Hynix, helped drive renewed risk appetite, with the legislative speculation providing additional support.
