Crypto markets posted modest gains on Monday as expectations for a potential U.S.-Iran agreement strengthened, with Iranian officials arriving in Doha to resume negotiations.
Bitcoin climbed 1.6% over the past 24 hours to around $77,500, while ether added 1.4%. The broader CoinDesk 20 index rose approximately 1.56%, reflecting a mild uptick across major digital assets.
Investor sentiment was supported by prediction market activity, where traders increased their bets on a near-term resolution. On Polymarket, the probability of a permanent agreement being finalized this month rose to 37%, up from about 14% on Friday. Odds increase further along the timeline, with markets pricing in a 46% chance by early June and 72% by late July. Total trading volume tied to the outcome has reached roughly $178 million.
The shift in expectations follows comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who indicated over the weekend that a framework agreement had been reached but still required final approval. Meanwhile, senior Iranian officials—including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Abdolnaser Hemmati—have arrived in Doha to take part in the talks.
Negotiations are expected to focus on critical issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. Pakistan and Qatar are acting as intermediaries in the discussions. Iranian authorities have described the current phase as an initial memorandum of understanding, with broader negotiations likely to continue over the next 30 to 60 days.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil shipments, has faced significant disruption since late February following military tensions involving the U.S. and Israel, though some traffic has resumed recently.
In traditional markets, crude oil prices dropped 5.4% to around $91.30 per barrel, while gold rose 1.35% to $4,570 per ounce. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, with the Dollar Index slipping about 0.3%.
Despite the improving outlook, Trump maintained a cautious stance, stressing that any deal must be comprehensive. He warned that failure to finalize an agreement could result in renewed escalation and a potentially more intense conflict.
