Bitcoin Remains Below ETF Cost Basis as $635 Million Flows Out of Funds

Bitcoin hovered near $81,500 on Friday as cryptocurrency markets entered a quieter phase following several days of volatility. South Korea’s Kospi traded flat overnight, suggesting some stabilization in AI-related stocks, while Nasdaq 100 futures also held steady. Oil prices continued to climb, keeping inflation concerns in focus.

Bitcoin was still trading below the estimated average purchase price of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). BTC remained just above $81,000, compared with the funds’ average cost basis of $82,313. This figure represents the running average price paid for Bitcoin flowing into the ETFs.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record Heavy Outflows

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $635 million in net withdrawals on Thursday, according to Farside Investors. It was the largest single-day outflow since June 25, reflecting heightened caution among investors during the market sell-off.

While substantial withdrawals can sometimes be interpreted as a reset that removes leveraged and short-term traders, historical data suggests Bitcoin has often struggled after similar events.

On the 22 previous days when ETF outflows exceeded $300 million, Bitcoin’s average performance was significantly weaker 7, 30 and 90 days later, according to Farside’s data.

The findings should be treated cautiously. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been trading for fewer than three years, limiting the historical sample. The results may also be influenced by the bear market that began in October 2025, so the pattern does not guarantee another decline.

Bitcoin Trading Range Narrows Near $81,500

After slipping toward $81,000 late Thursday, Bitcoin traded within a range of less than $1,000 through Friday’s early hours. The relative calm followed a week in which price swings reached roughly $3,000.

BTC was down 0.4% over 24 hours and remained below $82,500, a level it lost as support on Thursday.

Altcoins moved in different directions. BNB gained nearly 2% to around $745, while Dogecoin (DOGE) rose approximately 1%. Monero (XMR) retreated 7% to roughly $607, giving back part of its previous rally, and Zcash (ZEC) dropped nearly 4% to about $1,200.

HYPE, XRP, Ether and Solana (SOL) posted smaller losses of around 1% or less. Ether traded just below $2,400, according to CoinDesk data.

Rising Crude Prices Keep Investors Cautious

Equity markets also showed signs of stabilizing after Thursday’s sell-off. Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed following the index’s largest daily decline since June. Meanwhile, an exchange-traded fund tracking semiconductor stocks edged higher before the opening bell.

Meta shares continued to slide, while SpaceX rose following reports that it is considering entering the wireless carrier business.

Oil remained a concern for investors. Brent crude reached its highest level since early May, adding to inflation worries ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 27–28 policy meeting.

U.S. Treasury bonds surrendered some of their previous session’s gains. Thursday’s flight to safety had driven the 10-year Treasury yield down by its largest amount in more than a year. Gold and the U.S. dollar were broadly unchanged as markets assessed the outlook for inflation, interest rates and risk assets.