JPMorgan Asset Management expects Bitcoin to outperform U.S. equities, bonds and gold over the coming decade, forecasting an annualized return of 10% under its base-case outlook.
The projection was included in the firm’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report released Tuesday. JPMorgan also presented two alternative scenarios for Bitcoin, estimating a 17% annualized return in a bull case and a 9.7% annualized loss in a bear case.
By comparison, the bank expects U.S. bonds to return between 5.6% and 6.6% annually. Its forecasts put annual returns for U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%, small-cap equities at 7.7% and gold at 5.5%.
This marks the first time JPMorgan has assigned a specific range of expected returns to Bitcoin in its research.
The bank’s position on crypto remains complex, particularly given CEO Jamie Dimon’s long-running criticism of Bitcoin. Dimon called the cryptocurrency a “fraud” in 2017 and has continued to voice skepticism, though his more recent comments have been less categorical.
JPMorgan Asset Management also emphasized the risks associated with Bitcoin in its latest report. It said the cryptocurrency’s sharp price swings and unstable correlations with other asset classes continue to limit its suitability for widespread inclusion in investment portfolios.
The firm does not consider Bitcoin a reliable portfolio diversifier. Instead, portfolio manager Dr. Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo view it primarily as a speculative investment and a possible hedge against monetary easing.
The executives said Bitcoin’s strategic appeal largely depends on expectations that fiat currencies will expand or that more assets will eventually be traded on blockchain networks.
They also observed that Bitcoin generally behaves like a high-beta risk asset, moving in line with global money supply growth, despite sometimes being described as “digital gold.” Its changing relationship with other investments complicates risk modeling. Forecasting its value is particularly difficult because it does not generate conventional cash flows, with adoption, regulation and liquidity potentially having as much influence on its price as technological progress.
Update (Oct. 20, 13:15 UTC): The report has been identified as a publication of JPMorgan Asset Management.
