Monero futures open interest has surpassed $300 million as XMR climbs back above $600, approaching levels last recorded before the cryptocurrency suffered a steep decline in January. The similar market conditions have raised concerns that excessive leverage could trigger another wave of liquidations.
Leveraged trading activity in Monero (XMR) derivatives is increasing, potentially leaving the market vulnerable to an abrupt price reversal.
Monero is a privacy-focused digital asset that makes transactions difficult to trace. Its market capitalization stands at approximately $10.9 billion, making it the second-largest privacy coin by market value.
According to SoSoValue, the notional open interest in Monero futures, which measures the dollar value of outstanding contracts, has moved above $300 million. The figure is approaching the peak of roughly $320 million recorded in January. Futures enable traders to speculate on price changes without directly purchasing the underlying asset. Open interest has surpassed $300 million on only a few occasions, all of which occurred this year.
Pseudonymous crypto analyst Doctor Profit has cautioned that the latest buildup could precede significant liquidations. “The last Time we reached that amount of Open Interest was in Jan 2026. Monero Crashed 66% in the next 20 days. I Smell a very big Liquidation Event on XMR,” the analyst said. Doctor Profit previously identified Bitcoin’s 2025 market top and turned toward accumulation in July this year.
Open interest is tracked in both dollar terms and the number of coins represented by outstanding contracts. Dollar-denominated figures reflect the current value of positions and make it easier to compare derivatives activity across cryptocurrencies. Since liquidation statistics are commonly measured in dollars, rising notional open interest may also point to the possibility of larger forced closures if prices move sharply against traders.
The increase is visible in coin-denominated data, too. Outstanding Monero futures contracts have reached 515.73K XMR, the highest reading in five weeks. That represents a considerable increase from around 400K XMR recorded a week earlier.
Liquidations take place when exchanges automatically close positions after traders can no longer meet margin requirements. Leverage allows futures traders to control positions larger than the funds they initially deposit, increasing both potential returns and exposure to losses.
When prices move against leveraged positions, traders’ available margin can quickly shrink. If losses reach the exchange’s liquidation threshold, the position is closed to prevent the losses from exceeding the collateral backing it.
Long traders, who expect prices to rise, are particularly vulnerable when the market moves lower. Forced closures can create additional selling pressure, especially when bullish positions are heavily concentrated. This can produce a liquidation cascade in which falling prices trigger more liquidations, pushing the market down further.
A comparable situation emerged in January, when Monero’s price advanced alongside open interest reaching a record level, suggesting that bullish futures positions were becoming crowded. XMR subsequently peaked near $790 on Jan. 14 before falling below $300 in the first week of February. Data from Coinglass showed that the decline was accompanied by several million dollars in liquidations of long positions.
The latest rally is displaying similar characteristics, as Monero’s price and futures open interest rise together. XMR has recently broken above $600, reaching its highest level since January.
Still, elevated open interest alone does not establish that a crash is imminent. Whether the current leverage buildup results in another major liquidation event will depend on how prices develop and how traders adjust their positions in the coming days.
