Bitcoin’s realized cap stabilization, elevated RHODL ratio, and extended periods of negative funding rates are increasingly pointing to the possibility that a cycle bottom may have formed earlier this year.
For Bitcoin (BTC) investors, the central question is whether the market already established its low in early February, when prices briefly dropped toward $60,000 during a sharp correction. While no single indicator can confirm a definitive bottom, a combination of on-chain and derivatives signals suggests the worst of the selloff may be behind, particularly as BTC now trades back above $77,000.
A key supporting metric is Realized Cap, which values Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. Unlike market capitalization, which reflects the current spot price, Realized Cap represents the aggregate cost basis of holders and is often used to track capital inflows and outflows across the network.
Realized Cap previously peaked near $1.12 trillion before declining to around $1.08 trillion as Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its October record high. The drop marked one of the largest wealth drawdowns in Bitcoin’s history. However, the metric has since begun to stabilize, forming what appears to be a base—similar to patterns seen near major bear market lows, including 2022.
Another important signal comes from the RHODL Ratio, which compares wealth held by long-term holders (six months to two years) against newer market participants (one day to three months). The ratio is currently above 5, its third-highest reading on record. Historically, only the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms produced higher levels, suggesting long-term holders continue to control a significant portion of supply. Since February, long-term holder accumulation has increased by more than 400,000 BTC.
Derivatives data reinforces this picture. Perpetual futures funding rates—the payments exchanged between long and short traders to keep futures prices aligned with spot—remained deeply negative for one of the longest stretches on record between February and May. Sustained negative funding is typically associated with extreme bearish sentiment and overcrowded short positioning, conditions that often emerge near market bottoms as selling pressure becomes exhausted.
Similar setups have been observed around major macro stress events, including the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, and the tariff-driven selloff in April 2025, all of which ultimately coincided with significant Bitcoin lows and subsequent recoveries.
