Bitcoin is down just 1.5% in September, despite the month’s history as its weakest period and a series of pressures from higher interest rates, rising crude prices and a stronger dollar. The cryptocurrency is still up about 32% for the quarter and remains on track for its first quarterly gain since Q3 2025.
With more than half of September already over, bitcoin has avoided the sharper seasonal decline that traders often expect. Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has averaged a loss of around 3% in September.
That resilience has prompted some market participants to look for signs of underlying demand.
Bitcoin climbed 25% in August and reached roughly $81,000, leading to expectations that September could give back a substantial portion of those gains. Instead, the decline has so far remained limited.
BTC was trading near $78,000 at the time of writing, roughly where it stood before Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate increase. The 25-basis-point move was widely viewed as a negative development for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.
The market also absorbed the Senate’s failure to advance the Clarity Act. The bill secured 49 votes on Tuesday, falling short of the 60 required to move forward. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $74,887 before recovering, suggesting traders may have already factored in much of the risk surrounding the vote.
“What stands out to me is that Bitcoin has hardly budged at all in response to two objectively bad pieces of news. A 25-basis-point hike and the CLARITY Act failing to pass are both headlines that, in a different market environment, would have sent price meaningfully lower. Instead, we got basically nothing,” Mitchell Askew, head of Blockware Intelligence at Blockware, said in an email.
Selling Pressure Appears Limited
Askew said bitcoin’s muted response to negative headlines could point to reduced selling pressure.
“Anybody who was going to sell bitcoin based on events like these has already sold. They no longer have coins to sell. That is an incredibly positive sign for the medium to long term, and it is exactly what you tend to see in the later stages of a bottoming process,” she said.
The macro environment has offered little relief. West Texas Intermediate crude moved above $106 a barrel on Tuesday, reaching a five-month high as Middle East tensions persisted.
The Dollar Index also climbed above 100, reaching its highest level in more than a month. A stronger dollar can tighten financial conditions and weigh on risk-sensitive assets such as bitcoin.
Japan added another monetary-policy variable when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark borrowing rate to a 31-year high.
Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, said higher yields do not necessarily translate into weakness for bitcoin. He pointed to the possibility that rising rates could instead reflect concerns over currency debasement and sovereign risk.
“It’s not a one-way street. You see yields rising, and at the same time Bitcoin and gold outperforming. If rising rates are an indication of debasement risk and sovereign counterparty risk, then for store of value assets that is actually a positive driver,” Dori said.
Regulatory Outlook Shifts
Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $77,000 despite the combination of policy setbacks, expensive oil, tighter monetary conditions and dollar strength remains a key focus for the market.
Joel Kruger, markets strategist at LMAX Group, said a modest improvement in the macroeconomic, geopolitical or regulatory backdrop could provide a catalyst after bitcoin’s recent resilience.
“If the market has been this resilient when the news flow has been challenging, even a modest improvement in macro, geopolitical or regulatory conditions could provide the catalyst for the next major leg higher,” Kruger said.
The regulatory picture also received a more favorable development Thursday, when the Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled its long-awaited innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues. The exemption allows qualifying platforms to facilitate onchain stock trading under specified conditions.
“The failure to advance the legislation delays a statutory framework, but it does not prevent the SEC and CFTC from continuing to provide guidance under existing authority, leaving an important regulatory pathway open,” Kruger said.
Fed Outlook Meets Seasonal Weakness
Another concern is the prospect of additional Federal Reserve rate increases. Markets are pricing in three more 25-basis-point hikes by April 2027, potentially lifting the federal funds rate to 4.50%-4.75%.
Dori said digital assets do not necessarily require lower rates to continue outperforming.
“I do not fully agree that rates need to fall in order for digital assets to outperform,” he said.
Seasonality remains a less supportive factor heading into next week. CoinGlass data shows bitcoin has historically lost an average of 2.5% during the year’s 38th week, with gains occurring only four times.
Still, historical patterns are not a guarantee of future performance. Bitcoin’s seasonal record typically improves in the fourth quarter, when it has gained an average of 77%, according to CoinDesk data.
