A wave of mega listings led by SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic is poised to reshape global liquidity flows, with more than $240 billion in capital expected to be raised between June and year-end—an amount that surpasses the combined total of all venture-backed U.S. IPOs since 2000. Crypto markets, which draw from the same pool of speculative capital, could feel the impact.
The spotlight is firmly on SpaceX, which recently submitted a confidential S-1 filing with the SEC, targeting a $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. If the company lists in June at those levels, the offering would eclipse even Saudi Aramco’s record $29 billion IPO in 2019, making it the largest public debut in history. Prediction market Polymarket currently assigns a 65% probability to a June listing and a 53% chance that SpaceX closes its first trading day with a market capitalization above $2 trillion.
SpaceX is just the beginning. OpenAI is reportedly eyeing a Q4 IPO at a valuation approaching $1 trillion, while Anthropic could debut as early as October, potentially raising over $60 billion. If all three offerings proceed as planned, the scale and timing would create a concentrated draw on global capital within a six-month window.
According to Alex Good, founder of crypto AI project Post Fiat, this setup could mark a turning point for risk assets. Speaking in a recent interview, he suggested that the post-IPO environment may turn bearish for equities, describing the current phase as a “max bid” period where investment banks aggressively upgrade AI stocks ahead of major listings to capture underwriting fees.
This dynamic reflects a familiar cycle: coordinated optimism leading into major IPOs, followed by capital rotation once allocations are filled. Research from MSCI supports this view, noting that megacap IPOs could trigger billions in index-driven flows, sector reallocations, and tighter liquidity conditions for assets outside the newly listed कंपनies.
Cryptocurrencies—including Bitcoin and Ethereum—are part of the same “risk-on” liquidity ecosystem that fuels tech and AI equities. Over recent cycles, their correlation with indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has strengthened, meaning capital diverted toward IPO allocations may come at the expense of crypto demand.
History offers a cautionary precedent. Coinbase went public on April 14, 2021, coinciding with bitcoin’s then all-time high near $64,800. Within six weeks, BTC had dropped by roughly 50%. What appeared to be a milestone for mainstream adoption instead marked a local market top, as capital rotated elsewhere.
While SpaceX is not a crypto-native firm, its IPO has direct links to digital asset flows. Notably, the company plans to allocate roughly 30% of its offering—around $22 billion—to retail investors, significantly higher than typical deals of this size. That allocation could divert funds away from crypto markets, including memecoins, altcoins, and bitcoin itself.
Additionally, SpaceX reportedly holds 8,285 BTC—worth around $600 million—custodied with Coinbase Prime. This makes its IPO the first major public listing under new fair-value accounting rules to include a sizable bitcoin position on its balance sheet.
The key question for markets is whether crypto can remain resilient through the IPO roadshow period in May and June. If prices begin to drift lower, it may signal that investors are freeing up capital to participate in the offering. Conversely, a sustained bitcoin rally through this window could indicate that demand from spot ETFs and other structural flows has reduced crypto’s reliance on broader risk-on liquidity.
Unlike Coinbase’s $86 billion debut in 2021, SpaceX represents a different scale and context. Markets have had years to digest the lessons of past cycles—but whether those lessons hold will become clear in the weeks leading up to the listing.
