Wall Street is approaching two important events that could reveal how institutional investors are allocating capital across Bitcoin-related businesses and artificial intelligence. Strategy’s eligibility for MSCI indexes is nearing a crucial decision, with the index provider expected to announce its November review results shortly after 11:00 PM CET on November 11. The outcome is drawing considerable attention from Bitcoin investors because of Strategy’s extensive BTC reserves.
At the same time, Anthropic is preparing a potentially historic IPO that could rank among the largest stock market listings ever. The Claude developer aims to raise up to $64.4 billion through its share sale, targeting a pre-money valuation of approximately $1.02 trillion. The offering will provide a major test of institutional demand for large technology investments following SpaceX’s recent fundraising activity.
The two developments represent opposing capital market dynamics. Strategy could experience billions of dollars in potential selling pressure from passive investment funds, whereas Anthropic is seeking substantial fresh capital to accelerate its AI expansion. Their outcomes could help determine which sectors attract Wall Street’s next major wave of investment.
Strategy’s MSCI Eligibility Decision Could Put $2.8 Billion in Passive Funds at Risk
Strategy’s continued inclusion in MSCI indexes has become uncertain following proposed eligibility changes aimed at companies whose business models primarily involve holding financial assets rather than operating conventional businesses.
The revised classification framework could affect firms that increasingly resemble investment vehicles instead of traditional operating companies.
Strategy has accumulated a substantial Bitcoin treasury through a financing strategy built around issuing equity and debt to purchase additional BTC.
MSCI previously named Strategy and Japan’s Metaplanet among the companies potentially affected by its proposed methodology. The review has also raised concerns for other digital asset treasury businesses that could fall within the same classification.
The potential consequences extend beyond Strategy’s stock performance. JPMorgan previously estimated that removing the company from MSCI indexes could trigger approximately $2.8 billion in selling by passive funds that track the provider’s benchmarks.
Importantly, an index exclusion would not force Strategy to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings. Instead, funds following MSCI indexes would likely sell their MSTR shares, potentially weakening the stock’s valuation and reducing its access to equity financing.
A sustained decline in Strategy’s share price could make future capital raises more expensive. This could eventually limit the company’s ability to continue expanding its Bitcoin reserves at its previous pace.
MSCI is expected to release its November review results shortly after 11:00 PM CET on November 11. Any approved index adjustments will become effective after the market closes on November 30.
Anthropic’s $64.4 Billion IPO Could Reveal Institutional Demand for AI
While Strategy waits for clarity over its index membership, Anthropic is preparing a massive public offering that could attract unprecedented institutional investment.
The company behind Claude intends to sell 825 million shares at an expected price range of $70 to $78. At the highest proposed price, the offering could raise approximately $64.4 billion and establish a pre-money valuation of around $1.02 trillion. Its fully diluted valuation could reach $1.4 trillion.
Beyond the public share sale, Anthropic is also planning a separate $26 billion private placement involving major technology investors, including Google, Nvidia, and AMD. Together, the transactions could generate approximately $90.4 billion.
The company’s rapid revenue expansion is a key part of its investment proposition. According to its IPO filing, Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate reached $17 billion on a quarterly basis.
However, maintaining that growth will require extraordinary spending on computing resources and infrastructure. Its agreements for computing capacity with partners are approaching $900 billion, demonstrating the enormous financial commitments associated with expanding its AI operations.
Anthropic’s planned listing comes amid growing debate over whether the AI industry can generate sufficient returns to justify its enormous infrastructure investments. Investors are increasingly examining the relationship between revenue growth, computing expenses, financing requirements, and trillion-dollar valuations.
Consequently, the IPO could provide an important indication of whether institutional investors remain confident in the long-term potential of artificial intelligence or are becoming more selective about committing capital to expensive technology businesses.
