A handful of recurring trade amounts make up an unusually large portion of trading activity in Kalshi’s bitcoin and ether perpetual markets, according to CoinDesk’s review of publicly available transaction records.
Ether trading was particularly concentrated. Transactions within $2 of $5,499 totaled $7.7 million, representing 57% of the $13.5 million in ether-perpetual trades CoinDesk examined between Sept. 17 and Sept. 20.
Bitcoin showed a comparable concentration. Trades repeatedly appearing around $2,500 and $5,000 represented 54% of the $8.5 million in bitcoin-perpetual transactions included in the same analysis.
Trading volume is generally one of the first figures market participants examine when assessing how active a market is. High turnover can indicate greater liquidity and suggest that orders can be executed without significantly shifting prices.
At the same time, total volume does not indicate how many separate participants generated those trades. A market can report substantial turnover while a relatively small number of traders or strategies account for a large portion of the activity.
That distinction is relevant to Kalshi because the exchange’s reported crypto volume repeatedly clusters around particular dollar amounts.
The Pattern Appeared Before September
The recurring trade sizes were not confined to the four-day period analyzed in detail.
CoinDesk examined 46 one-hour ether samples covering June 19 through Sept. 20. In 43 of those samples, trading repeatedly concentrated around specific dollar targets.
The most prominent trade size represented roughly 45% of the traded value across the samples on average. On 15 dates, it represented more than half of the value traded during the sampled hour.
The contract count changed as ETH prices moved, but the dollar value of the transactions remained relatively stable. This is consistent with an automated strategy that maintains a predetermined dollar amount while adjusting the number of contracts as the underlying price changes. Traders commonly refer to these fixed-value executions as “clips.”
Kalshi, a U.S. derivatives exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is best known for its prediction markets. It introduced bitcoin perpetual futures in late May, offering contracts that track bitcoin without a set expiration date.
Ether Trading Centers on Specific Targets
Kalshi’s perpetual contracts divide exposure into smaller units. Those contracts were trading near $2.70 apiece on Monday.
CoinDesk analyzed 3,450 ether-perpetual trades across 23 hourly samples covering Sept. 17-20. The analysis used data from Kalshi’s public API. Of the transactions reviewed, 1,406 were within $2 of $5,499.
The $5,499 target remained nearly unchanged even as ETH appreciated from around $1,700 to $2,500 between June and September.
As ether rose, traders using a fixed-dollar strategy would need fewer contracts to maintain roughly the same notional value. One July cluster contained approximately 2,800 contracts, while the corresponding September activity involved around 2,200.
The target amount has shifted over time. Earlier CoinDesk observations found clustering around $4,999, while trades near $9,999 accounted for 72% of sampled ether volume on June 28.
A $3,999 target emerged Aug. 10, followed by approximately $4,499 on Aug. 18 and $5,499 on Aug. 24.
The phenomenon dates back to shortly after Kalshi launched its cryptocurrency perpetual products. On June 19, trades worth almost exactly $4,999 represented 37% of the ether contract value in CoinDesk’s hourly sample.
Bitcoin Displays Similar Behavior
The bitcoin perpetual market also contained recurring trade sizes that moved in tandem with BTC’s price.
The larger of two recurring positions remained close to twice the size of the smaller one. In nine of the 22 samples containing both trade sizes, the larger position was exactly double the smaller.
In the other 13 samples, the larger transaction was one contract above twice the smaller position, a difference that is consistent with rounding.
When bitcoin traded around $76,300, the recurring contract sizes were 327 and 655. By Monday, they had shifted to 307 and 614.
Kalshi’s ether perpetual also recorded an unusually high level of turnover compared with its outstanding positions.
On Monday, the market had about 93 million contracts in 24-hour volume against roughly 1.5 million contracts of open interest. The resulting volume-to-OI ratio was 61.
That means approximately 61 contracts traded during the day for every contract that remained open.
The ratio ranked second-highest among Kalshi’s 20 perpetual markets with open interest, compared with a median of about eight. Bitcoin’s ratio was 26.
The elevated turnover does not by itself demonstrate that any trading activity was improper.
Questions Remain About the Source of the Trades
CoinDesk asked Kalshi whether the repeated bitcoin and ether trade sizes came from a single participant or multiple participants. The exchange was also asked whether the activity involved market-making or incentive agreements and whether it had detected self-matching or common ownership between accounts.
Kalshi had not responded by publication time.
The recurring pattern resembles an algorithmic trading approach in which a system targets a fixed dollar amount and recalculates the number of contracts required whenever the underlying price changes. Similar dynamic position-sizing techniques are discussed in quantitative trading research, including work by Cartea, Jaimungal and Ricci.
Automated trading systems can modify quotes and position sizes as prices move to manage exposure and protect against adverse market movements. The broader concept is also reflected in the Avellaneda-Stoikov market-making model.
The progression of Kalshi’s observed targets — from approximately $4,999 to $3,999, $4,499 and $5,499 — suggests that the notional parameters may have been changed periodically.
Still, public transaction and order-book data cannot establish whether the activity resulted from ordinary algorithmic execution, incentives, rebate strategies or another mechanism.
Rebate Program Adds Another Variable
The economics of trading changed for some participants shortly before CoinDesk’s Sept. 17-20 sample.
A rebate program filed with the CFTC took effect Sept. 16, lowering fees to 0.003% for certain firms that settled transactions directly with Kalshi and providing market makers with rebates at the same rate.
The program began just before the four-day period but almost a month after the $5,499 pattern was first identified. It therefore does not explain the initial appearance of the recurring trade size, although it may have influenced activity during the later sample.
Pseudonymous trader “Beni” drew attention to the repeated trade sizes on X and alleged that Kalshi was overstating its crypto volume.
Kalshi’s crypto chief, known online as IcoBeast, disputed part of the argument. He said a volume-share chart cited by Beni referred to prediction markets rather than perpetual futures.
He also said Kalshi does not provide rebates for its crypto prediction markets and that incentives offered through its regulated exchange must be disclosed publicly.
The exchange’s response did not reveal which participants were responsible for the repeated ether-perpetual trades or why the recurring dollar targets changed over time.
