Derivatives indicators show limited movement in bitcoin and ether, while some altcoins are attracting stronger speculative demand.
Bitcoin (BTC) remained nearly unchanged, rising just 0.16% since midnight UTC to trade close to $64,000. The sideways movement came even as global stock markets climbed to record levels, helped by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence growth and expectations of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which contributed to weaker oil prices.
The MSCI All Country World Index advanced 0.4% toward another record close, while its Asia-Pacific index gained 2.2%. Australian equities also reached fresh highs after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at all-time highs on Tuesday.
The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index was flat, with 11 cryptocurrencies moving higher and nine declining.
The contrast between crypto and traditional markets highlights continued weakness across digital assets. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows during the first six months of the year as investors redirected funds toward AI-related assets.
DWF Labs said in a report that interest from both institutional and retail investors in crypto has weakened as artificial intelligence has absorbed a significant portion of market capital and attention. The firm noted that crypto has been among several sectors that have struggled to match AI-driven performance over the past year.
Market direction could soon be influenced by upcoming U.S. economic data, including employment numbers and the ISM services PMI report.
Circle Internet (CRCL), the issuer of USDC, reported a 7% annual increase in second-quarter revenue. However, revenue of $701 million fell below analyst forecasts, according to Bloomberg.
Galaxy Digital (GLXY) was also expected to publish its earnings report, while Riot Platforms (RIOT) postponed its release without giving a specific timeline.
Derivatives Market Activity
Futures sentiment remains cautious:
Crypto futures positioning continues to lean slightly bearish, with short positions accounting for 51% of taker volume. The imbalance has improved slightly compared with the recent 52/48 split that favored sellers.
PUMP leads market gains:
PUMP recorded the strongest performance among the top 100 cryptocurrencies over the past 24 hours, surging 115%. The rally increased futures participation, with open interest climbing 9% to 84.76 billion tokens. Despite the sharp daily rise, overall activity remains within recent ranges rather than reaching unusual levels.
Open interest changes across tokens:
XLM, ZEC, and BNB saw increases in open interest, indicating fresh trader positioning. Meanwhile, SHIB, HBAR, and LTC experienced declines, potentially reflecting capital outflows. Bitcoin and ether futures markets remained relatively quiet.
Aggressive buying appears in select assets:
Bitcoin and ZEC posted positive open-interest-adjusted cumulative volume delta over the past 24 hours, showing stronger buying pressure among major assets. The data suggests traders are entering long positions more aggressively through market orders rather than using passive limit orders. XLM and DOGE showed weaker demand.
XLM shows bearish futures positioning:
XLM recorded a deeply negative annualized perpetual funding rate of -23%, indicating perpetual contracts are trading below spot prices. This reflects increased bearish sentiment among derivatives traders.
Volatility remains suppressed:
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index continues to sit around 36% after recently reaching historically low levels. Despite expectations of a rebound, volatility has remained subdued. Ether’s volatility gauge, EVIV, is showing a similar trend.
Options activity favors upside bets:
Bitcoin and ether options markets on Deribit continue to show strong demand for call options, which provide leveraged exposure to potential price gains. However, OTC desk Paradigm reported bearish ether risk reversals, suggesting some traders are preparing for possible downside moves.
Stablecoin Market Trends
Tether’s USDT market capitalization has fallen by $4 billion over the past 60 days, marking one of the sharpest declines on record, according to CryptoQuant.
USDT supply generally increases when fresh capital enters the crypto market, as investors convert dollars into stablecoins to purchase digital assets. A decline in supply suggests that liquidity is leaving the ecosystem.
CryptoQuant described the current contraction as a possible sign that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. Historically, some of the largest USDT supply declines have occurred closer to market bottoms rather than at the beginning of major downturns.
However, the indicator remains uncertain. Similar USDT contractions in early 2023 and mid-2026 were followed by bitcoin recoveries, but the current decline also reflects weaker demand as bitcoin has traded within a narrow range since May.
A stronger recovery signal would appear if USDT supply begins expanding again. Until then, continued contraction suggests that capital is still exiting the crypto market.
Investors should pay close attention to the direction of USDT supply rather than its absolute market size. A move toward zero in the 60-day supply change would indicate renewed liquidity entering crypto, while further declines would point to continued capital outflows.
