XRP settled around $1.35 yesterday after reaching a high of $1.43 two sessions earlier. Analyst Ali Martinez has marked $1.38 as the critical resistance level for XRP. A sustained break above that level could strengthen the bullish setup and potentially pave the way toward $1.60. However, the outlook remains dependent on whether XRP can stay within its current technical structure.
Martinez, who uses the name Ali Charts on X, says XRP is forming a triangle with support between $1.31 and $1.35 and resistance at $1.38. With the pattern approaching its apex, XRP must continue holding the lower range to preserve the bullish setup. A decisive move through $1.38 could confirm the breakout and give the rally additional momentum.
A break below $1.31 would present the opposite scenario. According to Martinez, such a move could invalidate the near-term bullish structure and potentially turn the existing support zone into resistance if XRP later attempts to rebound.
XRP Faces Heavy Supply Around $1.60
Cost-basis data shows that more than 4.8 billion XRP were accumulated between $1.31 and $1.38. The substantial volume of tokens acquired within this range could create a meaningful demand zone if investors continue defending their positions.
However, higher levels contain another concentration of XRP supply. Roughly 1.99 billion XRP were acquired around $1.60, with a further 1.98 billion purchased near $1.68. This positioning suggests that $1.60 could become a significant resistance level following a breakout above $1.38.
XRP Rally Shows Limited Leverage Expansion
Derivatives activity provides another potentially positive signal for XRP. Total futures open interest dropped by approximately 16%, from 2.77 billion XRP on August 17 to 2.34 billion XRP on August 31. Over that same period, XRP’s price advanced nearly 40%.
The divergence indicates that the rally was not accompanied by a comparable increase in leveraged futures positions, suggesting traders were not simply driving the move through aggressive leverage.
At the same time, CME open interest climbed about 36% to 387 million XRP. CME’s share of total XRP futures exposure consequently increased from roughly 10% to 17%.
The shift could reflect increased participation from professional and institutional traders, although CME futures are also commonly used for hedging. Therefore, the increase does not necessarily mean those participants are positioning for further upside.
The $1.38 threshold also sits close to a significant moving-average resistance zone. XRP would need a clear and sustained break above $1.38 to strengthen the bullish case and overcome the technical barriers that remain above the current price.
