Market watchers say bitcoin’s next sustained rally may not arrive until long-term holders are fully flushed out and genuine institutional capital begins to enter the space.
After a turbulent period in October and November 2025, bitcoin BTC $90,647.21 has shown signs of stabilizing, trading largely between $85,000 and $90,000 for several weeks. Some analysts believe that range-bound behavior could persist.
“There may be catalysts that support higher prices in the weeks ahead,” said Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, citing potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy and progress on crypto legislation in Congress. “But for now, the market remains range-bound.”
Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at Schwab’s Center for Financial Research, struck a similarly cautious note. While Schwab does not publish formal price targets, Ferraioli said 2026 should ultimately be constructive for bitcoin. “That said, this could be a relatively boring year by crypto standards,” he added.
Ferraioli described the current slowdown as a natural pause following an extraordinary run. “From the November 2022 lows to the intraday high of $126,000 last October, bitcoin delivered roughly an eightfold return in three years,” he said. “The market is still digesting those gains.”
Since the October peak, on-chain activity has cooled, while flows into exchange-traded funds have emerged as the dominant influence on price. “Transaction fees were low, long-term holders were distributing, and exchange balances fell to cycle lows,” Ferraioli said. “Price action was largely driven by ETF flows.”
While ETFs have broadened access to bitcoin, Ferraioli warned they may also be masking underlying market dynamics. “True institutional investors are still largely on the sidelines,” he said. “Clear regulatory progress could become the next catalyst for a more durable rally.”
Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, said bitcoin’s narrative has weakened as digital assets have ceded attention to other asset classes, particularly as ETF inflows that surged earlier in the year have slowed. Without a macro shift or renewed institutional demand, he expects continued sideways trading.
That view is shared by Will Reeves, CEO of fintech firm Fold, who said bitcoin is waiting for supply-demand conditions to reset. “It’s deeply undervalued,” Reeves said. “The market is waiting for persistent sellers to be exhausted and for a broader base of buyers to step in.”
Whether the current environment amounts to a new crypto winter remains debated. “By traditional definitions, bitcoin is in a bear market,” Ferraioli said. “But given the asset’s inherent volatility, a 30% correction is hardly unusual.”
While bitcoin often appears correlated with equities, Ferraioli emphasized that it remains driven by its own fundamentals. “Money supply, disinflationary issuance, and adoption ultimately matter,” he said. “And adoption is the biggest unknown this year.”
