Bitcoin’s push toward the $80,000 mark may be losing momentum as weak trading activity and limited conviction from large investors cast doubt on the strength of the rally, according to 10x Research.
In a weekly note, head of research Markus Thielen highlighted a growing disconnect between bitcoin’s price gains and underlying market participation. While BTC has climbed 4.7% over the past week, he said the supporting data paints a more cautious picture.
Trading activity has declined notably, with bitcoin volumes running 17% below average and ether (ETH) volumes down 20%. At the same time, funding rates—a key gauge of leveraged positioning—remain deeply negative. Thielen noted that funding dropped to the 3rd percentile, while overall volumes slid to the 4th percentile, suggesting the rally has been driven largely by spot demand or short covering rather than strong leveraged bets.
This distinction is important. Spot buying, often associated with institutional flows, tends to be more stable but lacks the aggressive momentum typically seen in sustained bull markets. As a result, the current move higher may lack the force needed to extend significantly.
Institutional demand has provided some support. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have logged nine straight days of inflows, bringing total inflows for April to around $2.5 billion. Meanwhile, bitcoin dominance has risen to 60%, indicating that capital is concentrating in BTC rather than rotating into smaller assets.
Even so, Thielen warned that the structure of the rally remains fragile. He described the current environment as a “low-volume, low-funding regime,” which historically reflects market hesitation rather than strong directional conviction. Many participants, he added, appear to be staying on the sidelines.
Options markets echo this subdued outlook. Implied volatility has dropped into the lower end of its historical range, and traders are pricing in relatively modest price swings in the near term, signaling expectations for a calmer market despite elevated sentiment.
Ethereum reflects a similar trend, though with even weaker engagement. Trading volumes have fallen by more than half, and derivatives data suggests limited risk appetite. According to Thielen, the sharp drop in activity underscores a lack of conviction among market participants.
Despite these concerns, the outlook is not entirely negative. With fewer leveraged long positions in play, the risk of cascading liquidations on the downside is reduced. Thielen noted that this creates a more favorable near-term risk-reward balance if a new catalyst emerges.
That catalyst is likely to come from macroeconomic developments. For now, bitcoin’s rally remains intact, but without a pickup in participation, its ability to sustain gains may depend heavily on broader market conditions.
