Bitcoin News: BTC briefly hit $67,217 on Monday before pulling back to around $66,500 on Tuesday, delivering a muted 0.3% daily gain—far below what broader macro tailwinds would typically support.
Renewed optimism around a potential Iran agreement pushed the S&P 500 up 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 higher by 3.1%, yet crypto markets lagged significantly. This divergence between equities and Bitcoin highlights a clear hesitation among market participants.
The reasoning is straightforward: traders are not rejecting the Iran narrative, but they are unwilling to fully price it in. After two earlier ceasefire rallies that ultimately reversed this year, the market is now waiting for confirmation—namely the expected June 19 signing in Switzerland—before treating the development as credible and lasting.
Bitcoin News: Why BTC Isn’t Reacting Like a Risk Asset
On Monday, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed an electronic memorandum of understanding with Iran. Trump also stated that the Strait of Hormuz—already partially reopened—would be fully operational by Friday.
Oil markets reacted swiftly, with Brent crude dropping below $80 per barrel, marking its sharpest one-day decline in over two weeks. Risk assets followed, as Asian equities surged more than 3% and US markets posted strong gains.
Bitcoin, however, showed little follow-through. Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis, noted that despite a more than 4% drop in oil and strong equity gains, BTC barely moved. He described the reaction as a “relief move the market hasn’t fully committed to,” rather than a decisive rotation into risk assets like Bitcoin.
A deeper look at the Hormuz agreement reinforces this cautious stance. For geopolitical easing to translate into sustained crypto demand, stronger structural confirmation is needed—something the market has yet to see.
This hesitation is rooted in recent precedent. Bitcoin initially rallied following the April ceasefire but later reversed those gains, with a similar pattern seen after the failed June 9 escalation. Now facing a third attempt at de-escalation, uncertainty remains elevated. Trump also warned that the agreement could collapse if Iran refuses to halt its nuclear program, reinforcing doubts about its durability. The market is not ignoring the headlines—it is questioning their reliability.
ETF Outflows Underscore Weak Institutional Demand
Underlying demand remains soft. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded four consecutive weeks of outflows totaling roughly $5.4 billion, including a record weekly withdrawal of nearly $3.4 billion.
While the outflow streak has recently paused, there is little evidence of a strong institutional return. Profit-taking during Monday’s overnight session further highlights the lack of sustained buying pressure, with no meaningful bid stepping in to absorb supply.
One supportive trend is the continued movement of Bitcoin off exchanges into cold storage, gradually tightening available supply. While structurally bullish, this reflects supply-side dynamics rather than a clear resurgence in demand.
Altcoins Lead as Capital Rotates
Ethereum and Solana outperformed on the day, with ETH rising 2.8% to $1,784 (up 5.8% on the week) and SOL gaining 4.4% to $75.
Ethereum’s rebound following the Hormuz developments points to selective risk appetite rather than a broad crypto rally. The outperformance of altcoins suggests capital rotation rather than a renewed institutional focus on Bitcoin.
XRP and HYPE also posted gains of 3.2% and 6.3%, respectively, reinforcing the view that while the move is broad across assets, it remains relatively shallow at the Bitcoin level.
