- Hyperliquid traders are pricing Unitree at nearly $38 billion, more than four times the company’s roughly $9 billion IPO valuation, setting the stage for potential liquidations once its shares begin trading, Allium analysts said.
- Traders in the crypto derivatives market are betting that Chinese robotics firm Unitree Robotics could command a valuation exceeding four times its IPO price after its public-market debut.
- Unitree priced its Shanghai STAR Market IPO at 150.80 yuan ($22.37) per share, giving the company a valuation of around $9 billion. By comparison, its pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid traded near $92-$94 on Friday, implying a valuation of approximately $38 billion, according to Allium.
- The sharp difference underscores the market’s bullish expectations for Unitree, one of China’s prominent robotics companies. Founded in Hangzhou in 2016, Unitree develops four-legged and humanoid robots for research, industrial and consumer applications. The company generated $253 million in revenue last year, a 335% increase, while humanoid robot deliveries exceeded 5,500, Allium said.
- Unitree’s IPO reportedly attracted retail subscriptions roughly 8,000 times greater than the shares available. The company is expected to start trading between Aug. 17 and Aug. 21.
- The listing is also putting a spotlight on pre-IPO perpetual futures, a fast-growing segment of crypto-based derivatives.
- Hyperliquid built its reputation around onchain perpetual contracts, which allow traders to take leveraged long or short positions without a fixed expiration. Its markets have since expanded beyond digital assets to commodities including oil and gold, as well as private companies approaching public listings.
- Pre-IPO perpetuals do not provide investors with ownership of the underlying company and cannot be converted into shares. Instead, they create synthetic markets that allow traders to speculate on a company’s potential valuation before its stock begins trading. Once a public reference price becomes available, the contract is generally expected to converge toward the underlying stock price.
- Several recent listings have shown that these markets can provide useful signals for price discovery.
- Allium said a pre-IPO contract linked to Chinese memory-chip producer CXMT came within 2.5% of its Shanghai opening price when the company began trading in July.
- Hyperliquid traders also correctly predicted in June that Elon Musk’s SpaceX would debut above its $135 IPO price.
Unitree faces a difficult convergence
- Trading activity around Unitree has already been significant. The two Hyperliquid markets operated by Trade.xyz and Paragon have accumulated a combined $9.1 million in open interest and approximately $59 million in trading volume, according to Allium.
- When both markets were active, their prices differed by an average of just 1.6%. More recently, the contracts traded around $92-$94, representing more than 300% upside compared with Unitree’s IPO price.
- However, that large premium creates considerable downside risk for leveraged traders, even if Unitree delivers a strong debut.
- Allium estimates that Unitree could open at twice its IPO price and still trigger liquidations on roughly one-third of long positions.
- If the stock opens around $45, for instance, it would have doubled from the IPO price but still sit roughly 52% below the prevailing perp price. Such a move could liquidate about 33% of long positions. Meanwhile, an opening near $128, almost six times the IPO price, could wipe out an estimated 53% of short positions. A debut close to the current perp price would leave both sides largely unaffected.
- On Trade.xyz, the larger market, long and short positions are almost evenly matched, with about $6.5 million in longs and $6.6 million in shorts.
- Smaller traders are taking a more bearish stance, with positions below $50,000 accounting for about 70% of short exposure by value.
- Allium said Unitree’s opening price will determine which side of the market bears the liquidation risk, as any substantial gap from the current perp price could force one side out.
