Bitcoin stayed above $63,000 on Monday as it benefited from a broader rebound in U.S. stocks, although continued ETF withdrawals and weaker expectations surrounding major crypto legislation are keeping bullish sentiment in check.
BTC gained around 0.8% since midnight UTC, recovering some of last week’s losses. With no major catalyst driving the move, Bitcoin appeared to be tracking equities, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.5% to their highest level since July 2.
However, the recovery comes against a backdrop of weak ETF demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $390 million in net outflows last week, including three consecutive days of withdrawals, the first such streak since late July. It was the largest weekly outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin funds in six weeks.
Ether ETF flows were relatively modest, while Solana ETFs delivered their strongest weekly inflows since mid-May.
Clarity Act faces uncertainty
The outlook for the Clarity Act has also deteriorated. Galaxy Research head of research Alex Thorn lowered his estimate on Aug. 14 for the bill to become law in 2026 to approximately 10%. Prediction markets currently give it odds of around 17%.
A Senate cloture vote is scheduled for Sept. 15, following lawmakers’ return from recess, although market participants are increasingly expecting another delay.
Derivatives positioning
Taker ratio remains balanced: The 24-hour long-to-short volume ratio among takers remains close to even, continuing the trend seen Friday. Takers are traders who execute orders at available prices and remove liquidity from the order book.
Low liquidity increases volatility risk: Bitcoin futures open interest is now around $48 billion, nearly twice the market’s 24-hour trading volume. XRP shows a similar pattern. If leveraged positions are liquidated in large numbers, the lack of sufficient liquidity could amplify the resulting price swings.
BTC OI declines while XRP stays elevated: Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to roughly 750,000 BTC from 760,000 BTC on Friday. Similar increases above 750,000 BTC since April have often been temporary. XRP futures are showing greater strength, with open interest still around a 10-month high. ETH and SOL have much lighter futures positioning.
CC sees growing short exposure: Canton Network’s CC token fell more than 1.5% over 24 hours, ranking among the biggest decliners in the top 100 cryptocurrencies. At the same time, futures OI jumped more than 5%, suggesting traders are adding bearish positions. Negative perpetual funding rates and negative OI-adjusted CVD reinforce that interpretation.
ZEC attracts bullish bets: Zcash has also seen an increase in open interest, but its indicators point toward stronger buying activity. A positive 24-hour CVD suggests traders are aggressively entering longs through market orders. Its funding rate has risen to +10%, reflecting increased demand for bullish positions.
Volatility remains low: Bitcoin and Ether 30-day implied volatility remain near their lowest levels of the year, indicating subdued demand for options protection. Traditional markets are similarly calm, with the VIX at its lowest level since January.
Options lean toward upside: Deribit data shows increased demand for BTC and ETH calls at the front of the curve, pointing to bullish near-term positioning. The implied-volatility curve also remains stable despite Wednesday’s upcoming Fed minutes.
Call and put volumes remain mixed: Both Bitcoin calls and puts are among the five most-traded instruments over the past 24 hours. Ether options show a similar split.
Token performance
PUMP jumped 7.8% since midnight UTC, while daily trading volume climbed 55% to $90 million.
ZEC gained 4.7% to $508, extending the strength seen across privacy-focused cryptocurrencies after Monero’s rally last week.
MORPHO rose 5% to $2.07, reversing part of Friday’s decline and leading gains among DeFi tokens.
HYPE advanced 3.53% to $59.08 and is now up about 2% for the week.
FET slipped 1.56% to $0.1196, ranking among the weakest major altcoins as AI-related tokens lost some momentum.
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index has climbed to 46/100 from 36/100 on Aug. 7, indicating a gradual improvement in altcoin sentiment. However, its Fear and Greed Index remains at 38/100, showing that the broader market is still in fear territory.
