Bitcoin is showing little reaction to the latest U.S.-Iran escalation, remaining around $78,000 even as crude oil jumps and global equities weaken. The cryptocurrency has gained more than 24% in August, keeping it on track for its strongest monthly performance since 2017.
BTC added roughly 0.5% over the past 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 index fell about 0.75%. Asian markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng nearly unchanged and South Korea’s KOSPI up 0.46%. DAX and U.S. stock futures pointed lower.
Oil prices reacted sharply to the military developments. Brent crude moved above $90 a barrel after U.S. forces attacked Iranian rocket launchers, followed by Iranian strikes against military sites. Gold moved in the opposite direction, slipping to around $4,440 an ounce.
The jump in oil prices has added to inflation worries, particularly after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at Jackson Hole lifted the market-implied odds of a September rate hike to 58%.
Derivatives Market Signals
Trading volume surges while open interest stays steady:
Crypto trading volume more than doubled over 24 hours to roughly $183 billion. Open interest remained around $136 billion, suggesting the increase reflects greater trading activity rather than a major influx of new leveraged positions. The long-short taker ratio also remained relatively balanced.
Liquidations climb to $431 million:
Crypto traders saw approximately $431 million in positions liquidated. Ether accounted for about $130 million, while bitcoin represented roughly $100 million. Solana, XRP and Zcash were among the other tokens affected.
Monero leverage raises caution:
XMR futures open interest climbed 15% to around 637,000 tokens, reaching its highest level since February 2024, according to CoinGlass. The token also gained approximately 12% over the previous 24 hours.
The combination of rising price and open interest points to increased long positioning. But annualized perpetual funding rates close to 100% indicate that the trade is becoming crowded and expensive to maintain. A slowdown in the rally could therefore trigger a rapid liquidation of leveraged longs.
UNI offers a less crowded bullish setup:
Uniswap futures OI increased 12% while UNI gained 5%. Although the structure resembles XMR’s rally, UNI’s perpetual funding rate remains near 2%, suggesting significantly less leverage-related stress.
ZEC, SHIB and DOGE lose open interest:
These tokens recorded the largest OI declines over the period, although the amount of capital withdrawn from their derivatives markets was relatively modest.
BTC and ETH leverage remains contained:
Bitcoin futures open interest is below 700,000 BTC, compared with approximately 801,000 at the June 4 peak. Ether’s positioning remains similarly moderate.
CVD shows broad selling pressure:
The 24-hour cumulative volume delta is negative for most major cryptocurrencies, suggesting aggressive selling through market orders. Monero and Uniswap are notable exceptions, with both posting positive CVD.
Bitcoin volatility eases:
BTC’s 30-day implied volatility gauge, BVIV, has fallen below 40% after climbing close to 50% earlier in August. The decline suggests traders are again positioning for relatively calmer market conditions. Ether’s implied volatility has also retreated.
Options reveal defensive positioning:
Bitcoin puts at the $70,000, $73,000 and $74,000 strikes were among the most active contracts on Deribit over the past day. The concentration of put activity indicates that some traders are seeking protection against downside risk. Ether options show a similar pattern.
Token Movers
Uniswap was one of the strongest performers, rising 6.9% over 24 hours. The move coincided with on-chain data showing that more than $1.5 billion in tokenized-stock trading had been processed through Uniswap on Robinhood Chain.
PancakeSwap also gained 6.9%, despite the absence of an obvious new catalyst. Dash advanced 3.4%, Bitcoin Cash added 1.3% and bitcoin rose about 0.7%.
Prom was the clear laggard, plunging 18% as traders appeared to take profits after its recent speculative surge. Despite the decline, PROM remained more than 100% higher over the past week.
Bitcoin’s ability to stay near $78,000 while oil rises and stocks retreat highlights its resilience. With August gains above 24%, BTC remains on course for its strongest monthly performance in years, although interest-rate expectations, geopolitical developments and leveraged positioning could still influence the final stretch of the rally.
