Bitcoin’s current drawdown has so far avoided two major signs of a deeper bear market: closing below Realized Price and pushing aggregate NUPL into negative territory. The resilience of both measures suggests market-wide losses have been less severe than during earlier Bitcoin bear markets.
In the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 downturns, Bitcoin remained below Realized Price for months. The current cycle has been different. Bitcoin has yet to post a daily close below the metric, and even the June low stayed above it. Glassnode says that if Bitcoin continues holding above the True Market Mean, the June bottom would be the shallowest of the three bear-market lows included in its comparison.
The share of Bitcoin supply in profit fell to around the same level seen at the November 2022 bottom during June’s low. This suggests that a similarly large portion of coins was underwater. However, the unrealized loss was not comparable in magnitude. NUPL, which measures unrealized gains and losses across the entire supply, remained above zero throughout this cycle instead of turning negative as it did during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
Still, a positive NUPL does not mean every holder is profitable. Some individual coins and long-term holders can remain underwater even while the aggregate measure stays above zero. The same principle applies to Bitcoin’s position above Realized Price.
Long-Term Holder Levels to Watch
Glassnode identifies $84,000–$85,000 as the largest long-term-holder supply cluster. The zone represents a major concentration of Bitcoin holdings, but it does not necessarily indicate that those coins are profitable or that holders are likely to sell.
The mean MVRV price is positioned around $96,700. Glassnode calculates this level using Realized Price and Bitcoin’s long-term average MVRV, with the metric representing a return toward the market’s longer-term average holder profitability. Buyers who accumulated Bitcoin one to two years ago, particularly those who entered near the upper end of the range, could also approach their break-even point around this level.
Meanwhile, the True Market Mean near $77,000 remains the key downside reference. These levels help define the recovery structure, while institutional demand and ETF activity provide additional clues about the strength of the rebound.
Long-term-holder MVRV has remained above 1 during the current cycle, indicating that this group has remained profitable overall. Selling pressure has also been comparatively restrained. Weekly realized profits during the latest rally are only a fraction of the amounts seen around the 2024 and 2025 market tops, despite almost all short-term holders returning to profit.
Bitcoin Faces $95K–$97K Resistance
The next major challenge for Bitcoin sits between $95,000 and $97,000, where the mean MVRV price overlaps with significant options positioning. Positive gamma was strongest around the $95,000 strikes in the report’s data, while negative gamma accumulated between spot and $92,000. This positioning could increase price volatility below $92,000 before limiting moves as Bitcoin approaches $95,000.
Demand conditions have improved but remain insufficient to confirm a sustained recovery. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $1.3 billion of inflows during the five days after the squeeze began, reversing two weeks of net outflows.
Trading activity has also recovered sharply. Twenty-four-hour spot volume has increased 121% from its August low, more than doubling since the rally began. Even so, the seven-day average remains approximately 30% below its level from a year earlier.
The broader picture therefore remains constructive but cautious. A break below $84,000 would bring the $77,000 True Market Mean back into focus. Conversely, a sustained move above $95,000–$97,000 would challenge the main overhead resistance zone. October technical levels and macroeconomic catalysts could also play a major role in determining the next move.
Overall, this cycle has avoided some of the more severe characteristics seen in previous Bitcoin bear markets. Aggregate NUPL has remained positive, Bitcoin has avoided a daily close below Realized Price, and realized profit-taking has been relatively subdued. ETF inflows and spot market activity have also improved.
For now, $84,000 is an important line for the recovery. Holding above it keeps the route toward $96,700 open, while a break below $84,000 and a subsequent test of $77,000 would raise questions about whether the rebound can continue.
