Bitcoin is struggling to break out of its six-week trading range as volatility falls to multi-year lows and rising government bond yields unsettle global markets. Investors are also waiting for the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes for fresh clues about the interest-rate outlook.
Bitcoin traded near $64,000, down about 0.5% since midnight UTC. The cryptocurrency has remained between $61,500 and $66,900 since July 8, reflecting a prolonged period of limited price movement.
The latest pressure has largely come from rising global bond yields. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5.333%, its highest level in almost 20 years. Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to a 30-year peak, while Germany’s 30-year Bund yield reached levels last seen in 2011. France’s comparable yield also rose to its highest point since 2008.
The bond-market sell-off coincided with weakness in U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3% on Tuesday, recording its largest daily decline since early August, while the S&P 500 extended its losing streak to three sessions. Futures for both indexes have since steadied.
Markets are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, scheduled for release later Wednesday. The minutes could provide insight into the central bank’s next steps after policymakers voted to leave rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. Three of the 12 voting members had favored raising rates.
Bitcoin Derivatives Point to Cautious Positioning
CoinGlass data shows a slight bullish bias in short-term trading. Long positions represented about 51% of taker flow across timeframes of up to four hours. On the daily timeframe, the balance shifted slightly toward shorts at 50.21%, indicating less conviction among longer-term traders.
Bitcoin open interest has slipped to roughly $21.8 billion from about $23 billion on Aug. 11. The decline, combined with Bitcoin’s sideways movement, suggests traders are closing positions rather than adding significant new exposure while waiting for a catalyst.
Funding rates remain marginally positive on major exchanges. Bitcoin’s open-interest-weighted funding rate was approximately 0.0049%, while Ethereum’s stood near 0.0022%. The relatively low rates indicate that leverage is not excessive, reducing the risk of a major funding-driven squeeze.
The biggest liquidation in the past 24 hours involved a $23.35 million BTC-USD position on Hyperliquid. Total market liquidations reached about $190.24 million, including $113.27 million from short positions.
Ethereum led the liquidation activity over the previous four hours, with roughly $5.35 million in positions wiped out. The concentration among shorts points to forced position closures rather than aggressive new long exposure.
Bitcoin futures maintained a modest positive basis. The Aug. 28 contract carried an annualized basis of around 12%, while Deribit’s Sept. 25 contract stood at approximately 7.12%. The pricing indicates measured optimism rather than expectations of a major near-term rally.
Deribit’s short-dated implied volatility was about 20.4% for the Aug. 20 expiry, with options pricing an expected move of roughly $656 in either direction. Most options activity was clustered around the $64,000-$65,000 strikes, highlighting limited expectations for a large move before the Fed minutes.
Altcoins Post Mixed Moves
ENA climbed 2.99% to $0.0852, making it one of the day’s stronger performers after a period of weakness.
LINK added 1.82% to $9.70, extending gains following Standard Chartered’s bullish outlook and outperforming many mid-cap DeFi tokens.
NEAR rose 1.76% to $1.615, with the AI-related token attracting buyers after a difficult run through mid-August.
PUMP dropped 3.23% to $0.002998, giving back most of its 7.8% gain from Monday as buying momentum weakened.
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season index remained at 44 out of 100, unchanged after falling to 37 on Aug. 7.
