Citigroup has lowered its crypto outlook once more, cutting its Bitcoin price target to $82,000 and Ethereum to $2,240, while removing its ETF inflow forecast entirely in a July 2026 research note.
In its July 1 report, the bank reduced its 12-month Bitcoin projection from $112,000 to $82,000 and trimmed its Ethereum target from $3,175 to $2,240. It also revised its expectation for net spot crypto ETF inflows over the next year to zero, down from a prior $10 billion estimate, signaling a deeper reassessment of demand fundamentals.
The revision marks Citi’s second downgrade cycle in 2026 and reflects a notable shift in view. ETF-driven institutional demand is no longer seen as a dependable source of support for crypto valuations.
The update comes with Bitcoin trading around $58,650, down roughly 1.2% over the past 24 hours, alongside daily volumes exceeding $34.6 billion. Citi pointed to weakening investor demand, persistent ETF outflows that have turned a former tailwind into a headwind, and continued delays in U.S. regulatory progress as the primary drivers of the downgrade.
The report highlighted that ETF flows—once a key price catalyst—have recently turned negative, in line with year-to-date spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of approximately $3.3 billion at the time of publication.
The removal of ETF inflow assumptions represents the most consequential change in Citi’s framework. Earlier projections anchored to $10 billion in expected inflows supported stronger demand-side dynamics, while a zero-inflow baseline materially reduces institutional demand inputs within its valuation model.
Mounting pressure had already been evident, with cumulative ETF outflows nearing $6 billion and undermining the institutional demand narrative that had supported more optimistic Wall Street forecasts.
On the policy front, Citi reiterated concerns first outlined in its March 2026 downgrade. Alex Saunders, the bank’s head of quantitative global macro and DeFi research, attributed the revisions to delays in Washington around the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act rather than structural weaknesses in Bitcoin.
The legislation remains under close scrutiny by institutional investors but has yet to advance to a Senate cloture vote. Citi continues to view progress on the bill as a key determinant for its forward assumptions.
The latest revision extends a broader downward trend in Citi’s projections. Bitcoin’s target has now been reduced from $143,000 earlier in 2026 to $112,000 and then to $82,000, while Ethereum’s has fallen from $4,304 to $3,175 and now to $2,240.
Bear-case scenarios have also been adjusted lower, with Bitcoin’s downside estimate cut to $53,000 from $58,000 and Ethereum’s to $1,094 from $1,198, reflecting expectations of weaker macro conditions alongside ongoing ETF outflows.
The key issue now is whether Citi’s zero-ETF inflow assumption proves durable or temporary. The bank expects its next major forecast revision to hinge on either tangible legislative progress in the U.S. or a sustained turnaround in ETF flow trends.
