Analysts have dismissed a direct relationship between Nvidia’s recent troubles and Bitcoin’s price decline, suggesting that the downturn is instead driven by capital shifting toward Anthropic’s upcoming IPO and a broader retreat from riskier investments.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to approximately $68,000 overnight, reaching its lowest level since August. The cryptocurrency has now lost more than 20% of its value since early October, as multiple market developments continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
Market uncertainty surrounding Nvidia, the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, has disrupted enthusiasm for AI-related investments. Persistent inflation and political uncertainty following the U.S. midterm elections have also contributed to broader market weakness. However, analysts believe Anthropic’s highly anticipated IPO could be playing a more significant role in Bitcoin’s latest decline.
Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca attributed the downturn to the launch of Anthropic’s IPO subscription process, which reportedly attracted six times the demand compared with the number of shares available. He suggested that investors are withdrawing capital from liquid markets to secure allocations in what could become the largest public listing in history.
Rocca said investors looking to participate in Anthropic’s IPO, which is targeting up to $64.4 billion in fundraising, may be liquidating Bitcoin and other easily traded assets to raise cash. He compared the situation with SpaceX’s IPO earlier this year, which he said temporarily reduced Bitcoin liquidity as investors shifted funds into the offering.
Rocca noted that large IPOs can create strong incentives for investors seeking quick returns. When demand for allocations surges, liquid assets such as Bitcoin often become an immediate source of capital.
Technology Stocks and Strategy Intensify Selling Pressure
Rocca identified several additional factors contributing to the market downturn, including volatility in technology valuations following Jensen Huang’s sudden departure from Nvidia, recent cybersecurity incidents, and the possibility of Strategy being removed from MSCI’s global indexes.
However, some market analysts argue that Nvidia’s difficulties have no direct impact on Bitcoin. Instead, they believe the decline reflects a broader wave of deleveraging and risk reduction across financial markets.
Mark Connors, chief investment strategist at Risk Dimensions, said Nvidia’s situation has no direct connection to Bitcoin’s price movements. He pointed to the simultaneous decline in gold as evidence of a widespread unwinding of positions tied to the AI investment theme.
Chris Sullivan, co-portfolio manager at Hyperium Decimus, similarly argued that there is no meaningful logical relationship between Nvidia’s troubles and Bitcoin’s decline.
Sullivan instead highlighted growing bearish positioning against Bitcoin, with short open interest exceeding its August peak. He also cited significant outflows from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), extreme fear across cryptocurrency markets, and expectations of a potential 50-basis-point interest rate increase within the next 30 days.
The downturn has also spread to precious metals, supporting the argument that investors are reducing exposure to risk-sensitive assets across markets rather than reacting solely to Bitcoin-specific developments.
Sullivan observed that the simultaneous weakness in metals and cryptocurrencies is unusual, emphasizing that financial markets frequently behave in unpredictable ways.
Jim Ferraioli, head of crypto research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, also expressed skepticism about Nvidia being the primary cause of Bitcoin’s decline, apart from its broader impact on investor sentiment.
Ferraioli pointed to MSCI’s potential removal of Strategy from its benchmark indexes as another possible source of selling pressure. If the company is excluded, index-tracking funds could be forced to sell their Strategy shares, potentially affecting the stock of the largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
Nevertheless, Ferraioli noted that Bitcoin’s sharp decline occurred around 11 p.m. Eastern Time, suggesting that neither Nvidia-related developments nor the MSCI announcement necessarily triggered the selloff.
Despite Bitcoin falling below $70,000, Rocca argued that the cryptocurrency has shown considerable resilience given the volume of negative developments affecting global markets.
SpaceX IPO May Offer Clues to Bitcoin’s Recovery
Strive CEO Matt Cole believes Bitcoin’s recent downturn resembles its price performance before SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO in June.
In a post on X, Cole noted that Bitcoin declined 19% during the 50 days preceding SpaceX’s public listing. By comparison, Bitcoin has dropped 18% over the same period ahead of Anthropic’s planned IPO.
Following the SpaceX listing, Bitcoin experienced additional losses, reaching a bottom 18 days later before beginning a recovery. By the 100th day after the IPO, the cryptocurrency had gained 28% from its listing-period price.
Cole suggested that a similar pattern following Anthropic’s IPO could indicate that Bitcoin has already experienced most of its recent drawdown, potentially allowing prices to rebound sharply over the next few months.
Based on this historical comparison, Cole projected that Bitcoin could approach $90,000 by late February if the previous recovery pattern repeats.
However, the comparison is not without limitations. Bitcoin’s decline around the SpaceX IPO also coincided with concerns about potential BTC sales by Michael Saylor’s Strategy. This makes it difficult to determine whether the IPO alone was responsible for the cryptocurrency’s earlier downturn.
