A relief rally driven by recovering U.S. equities helped BTC and ETH bounce off weekly lows, but bearish derivatives positioning and negative CVD readings suggest the rebound may remain fragile.
The crypto market showed signs of stabilization on Thursday, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising 1.1% since midnight UTC after briefly slipping below $60,000 on Wednesday—its lowest level since October 2024.
Even with the recovery, Bitcoin remains at a key technical threshold, where a breakdown could open the door toward $52,000. For now, price action indicates the market has temporarily stabilized.
Ether (ETH) also recovered, gaining 1.5% to trade around $1,644 after briefly falling to $1,550 during Wednesday’s late-session drop.
The rebound in crypto tracked a broader recovery in U.S. equity futures, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up 0.7% and 2.2%, respectively.
Derivatives positioning
BTC briefly tested the $59,000 zone on Wednesday before rebounding above $61,000, with volatility triggering widespread liquidations across leveraged positions. Nearly $1 billion in crypto futures were wiped out in 24 hours, largely from long positions.
Bitcoin futures open interest has climbed to 763K BTC, the highest since early June, after a period of relative stability near 730K BTC. However, the increase is not purely bullish, as funding rates have turned negative—signaling rising demand for downside hedges.
Ether futures show little change in open interest, with funding rates still slightly positive. Solana (SOL) remains near record-high open interest with mostly neutral funding, while XRP also shows balanced positioning near recent highs.
Across major assets, the OI-adjusted 24-hour cumulative volume delta remains negative for a third consecutive session, indicating that aggressive selling pressure continues to dominate spot action.
Volatility indicators have eased, with Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) falling from 51% to 46%, reflecting reduced demand for protection and helping support the short-term bounce. Ether’s implied volatility (EVIV) has followed a similar trend.
However, ETH continues to trade at a volatility premium over BTC, with implied vols about 10 points higher across maturities.
Options skew remains firmly tilted toward downside protection, with Bitcoin’s one-week skew showing a roughly 25-point premium for puts, underscoring persistent demand for hedges even amid the rebound.
Token activity
Altcoins staged a sharp but uneven rebound after Wednesday’s selloff, reflecting thin liquidity conditions.
Jupiter (JUP) fell more than 12% in six hours before rebounding over 18%, highlighting extreme two-way volatility and forced liquidations.
Overall, roughly $1 billion in crypto futures positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with about $585 million concentrated in altcoins.
DeFi tokens such as AAVE and ETHFI outperformed, gaining 2.5% and 4.7%, respectively.
AI-related tokens underperformed, with RENDER and NEAR slipping between 0.8% and 1.9% despite broader market gains.
Solana (SOL) dropped to $64 on Wednesday, extending a 75% decline since September. A break below the June 6 low of $60 would mark its weakest level since December 2023.
