Bitcoin Holds Near $84K as Q4 Begins
Bitcoin remained close to $84,000 at the start of the fourth quarter as traders monitored Friday’s U.S. employment report and continued volatility in global bond markets.
Currency and bond markets were also in focus, with the euro weakening against the dollar as French government bond yields climbed while German yields declined.
French-German Yield Spread Widens
France’s 10-year OAT yield increased 8 basis points, while Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell 6 basis points, pushing the spread between the two bonds to 135 basis points.
French bond credit-default-swap spreads also climbed to their highest level in 13 years. By comparison, the OAT-Bund spread has generally remained between about 50 and 80 basis points over the past several years.
The euro fell 0.9% to $1.1231, marking its weakest level in roughly five months.
Markets Scale Back Fed Rate-Hike Expectations
U.S. Treasury yields also moved lower as traders reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase.
The two-year Treasury yield declined 7.5 basis points to 4.81%. Meanwhile, the probability of an October Fed move fell to 33.8%, down sharply from around 70% earlier in the week.
Oil Rises on Middle East Developments
Oil prices moved higher after reports that the U.S. was sending a third aircraft carrier and an additional Marine unit to the Middle East.
The Jerusalem Post, citing a U.S. official, reported the deployment. West Texas Intermediate crude, which had previously traded below $89, rose 2.5% to $92.63. Brent crude gained 3.6% to $101.53.
U.S. Manufacturing Expands as Price Pressures Increase
The latest ISM manufacturing data showed continued expansion in the U.S. factory sector, although price pressures strengthened.
The manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5 in September, slightly below August’s 54.6 and the 55 consensus estimate. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The New Orders Index improved to 55.3 from 53.7, pointing to stronger demand.
However, the Prices Paid Index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, exceeding economists’ 72.3 forecast. Every commodity included in the report was reported as having increased in price, while none was listed as declining.
The combination of continued manufacturing growth and accelerating input costs added another layer of uncertainty for markets ahead of Friday’s employment report. The data produced little immediate reaction.
NEAR Drops After $3.8M Exploit
NEAR fell about 9% after blockchain investigator ZachXBT reported an exploit involving NEAR Intents that resulted in roughly $3.8 million in losses.
NEAR Intents was temporarily suspended after the team identified an issue involving the interaction between its Omni deposit and withdrawal infrastructure and a NEAR Intents smart contract.
The vulnerable contract was patched, with the team saying NEAR Intents and near.com were expected to resume operations within about an hour.
Treasury Yields Post Sharpest Monthly Increase Since 2022
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed 53 basis points during September, representing its largest monthly increase since September 2022, according to Yahoo Finance’s Julie Hyman.
The September 2022 increase was accompanied by a more than 9% decline in the S&P 500. This September, however, the index slipped just 0.45%.
Bitcoin also showed a different performance. BTC fell 3.1% in September 2022 but gained 6.3% in September 2026.
The 10-year yield briefly reached 5.362% overnight before easing to 5.282%, with the source describing the earlier level as another 24-year high.
Jobless Claims Stay Historically Low
Initial U.S. jobless claims totaled 197,000, compared with 198,000 the previous week and economists’ forecast of 200,000.
The four-week moving average declined to 200,000 from 202,500.
Markets were preparing for Friday’s September nonfarm payrolls report, with economists expecting the U.S. economy to have added 90,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%.
Bitcoin Enters Q4 After Strong Third Quarter
Bitcoin posted a 42.7% gain in the third quarter, its strongest quarterly performance since the 68.7% increase recorded in the first quarter of 2024.
Ether also recorded a strong quarter, rising 70.8% for its best quarterly performance since a 160.7% gain in Q1 2021.
Both assets were little changed on the first day of Q4. Bitcoin traded just below $84,000, while ether remained slightly above $2,700.
With employment data due Friday and Treasury yields still elevated, traders were weighing the strength of the U.S. economy against persistent inflation and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
