Bitcoin held by so-called “conviction buyers” has climbed to nearly 4 million BTC, marking a roughly 300% increase since late 2025 and signaling a notable shift in the asset’s market structure.
Data from BitGo, cited by Bitfinex on Wednesday, shows that long-term investors have significantly expanded their holdings, reflecting a growing concentration of bitcoin in the hands of entities with low transaction activity. According to Bitfinex, this surge represents a major migration of bitcoin’s realized value into strong hands.
At current prices near $80,000, the capital held by these conviction buyers is valued at more than $320 billion.
“While the exact methodology behind BitGo’s ‘conviction buyers’ metric isn’t entirely clear, the broader takeaway is significant,” said Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics. “Historically, periods of tightening liquid supply alongside renewed demand have set the stage for bitcoin’s most powerful upside moves.”
Bitfinex noted that the current wave of accumulation represents the largest two-quarter increase in high-conviction buying since the market rebound following the 2020 COVID-19 crash. These conviction buyers include both institutional players and long-term individual investors.
Importantly, these holdings are distinct from the estimated 5.6 million BTC that has remained inactive for over a decade, according to developer Jameson Lopp. With approximately 20.03 million BTC currently in circulation, a growing portion is now effectively locked away from active trading.
Analysts at Bitfinex emphasized that an increasing share of bitcoin’s realized value is migrating off exchanges and into wallets associated with entities that rarely transact, regardless of market volatility. This trend points to a structural tightening of available supply.
The shift is being driven in part by large-scale accumulation from institutional players and corporate treasuries. Among them is Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded corporate holder of bitcoin, which recently increased its holdings to 818,869 BTC—acquired for nearly $62 billion—and is currently sitting on approximately $4.6 billion in unrealized gains.
As more supply moves into these low-activity wallets, the amount of bitcoin available on the open market continues to shrink, reinforcing the potential for a supply shock dynamic.
Further supporting the strengthening market structure, research from CEX.IO indicates that nearly 70% of recently acquired bitcoin is now in profit. This dynamic often acts as a psychological buffer, reducing the likelihood of panic selling during short-term price pullbacks.
CEX.IO analysts suggest that as more investors move into profitable positions, their urgency to exit declines, contributing to overall market stability.
“Investors who truly understand bitcoin tend to accumulate rather than sell, especially with the growing availability of borrowing against BTC holdings,” said Ran Hammer, vice president of business development at Orbs. “This fundamentally alters the supply equation, with more bitcoin structurally removed from circulation.”
Connor Howe, CEO and co-founder of Enso, added that bitcoin’s long-standing scarcity narrative is increasingly being reflected in real market behavior.
“With ETF inflows and institutional accumulation becoming more structural than speculative, a larger share of supply is shifting into conviction hands,” Howe said. “This could make supply constraints far more pronounced when demand accelerates.”
