MSCI’s decision to remove Strategy from its major stock indexes could put additional pressure on the company’s ability to finance future Bitcoin purchases, analysts say. While the move may trigger forced selling by passive investment funds, some market observers believe much of the potential impact has already been priced into MSTR shares.
MSCI confirmed that Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company, will be removed from several prominent equity benchmarks, including the MSCI USA Index, after the market closes on November 30.
The decision follows new eligibility criteria for companies classified as non-operating entities, which MSCI introduced on October 15. The same policy has also resulted in the removal of Japan-listed Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet (3350) from the MSCI Japan Small Cap Index.
The exclusion could make it more difficult for Strategy to attract investment and raise capital for additional BTC acquisitions. Nevertheless, analysts remain divided over how significant the financial consequences will be.
MSCI indexes serve as benchmarks for investment funds that seek to mirror the performance of their underlying stocks. When a company is removed, funds tracking the affected index typically have to sell their shares, creating potential downward pressure on the stock.
However, the decision does not affect Strategy’s stock market listing or require the company to sell its Bitcoin holdings. Its reserves currently stand at 850,364 BTC, valued at approximately $62.6 billion.
Passive Funds Could Sell Millions of MSTR Shares
The potential scale of forced selling remains uncertain, with different research firms offering varying estimates.
BloFin Research expects MSCI-linked investment funds to dispose of approximately 13 million Strategy shares. That represents roughly 3.1% of the company’s outstanding stock and less than one day’s average trading volume.
Strategy reached a similar conclusion in its submission to MSCI, estimating that funds tracking the provider’s global investable indexes collectively own around 13 million MSTR shares.
At Wednesday’s market prices, those holdings were worth approximately $1.6 billion.
JPMorgan’s earlier assessment was considerably more bearish. In November 2025, the bank estimated that Strategy’s removal could lead to $2.8 billion in outflows. The figure could potentially reach $8.8 billion if other major index providers introduced comparable restrictions.
However, JPMorgan’s projection reflected MSCI’s initial proposal rather than the final eligibility rules adopted following the consultation.
Strategy’s Bitcoin Buying Strategy Faces a Potential Setback
Beyond immediate share sales, analysts are concerned about how the exclusion could affect Strategy’s ability to finance its Bitcoin accumulation.
The company has relied on convertible notes, preferred stock, and common equity offerings to generate funding for BTC purchases.
Its strategy depends heavily on maintaining a market net asset value (mNAV) premium above 1x. This allows Strategy to issue shares at a price higher than the underlying value of its Bitcoin reserves and use the proceeds to acquire additional BTC.
Such transactions can increase the amount of Bitcoin backing each outstanding share, creating value for existing investors.
However, the economics change when the mNAV premium approaches 1x. At that level, issuing new shares provides limited additional benefit. If the valuation falls below 1x, further equity issuance could dilute shareholders.
BloFin Research warned that MSCI’s exclusion could weaken demand for MSTR shares and push the company’s mNAV premium lower from its current level of approximately 1.08x.
A further decline could undermine the fundraising mechanism that has supported Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin purchases.
Declining mNAV Highlights Growing Financial Challenges
Strategy’s valuation premium has already experienced a significant contraction, falling from approximately 3.4x in November 2024 to around 1.08x.
Recent financial disclosures suggest the company is also adjusting how it deploys capital.
In its November 9 filing for the week ending November 8, Strategy reported generating $283.8 million through the sale of approximately 2.05 million common shares.
However, just $81.9 million was directed toward Bitcoin purchases, funding the acquisition of 1,036 BTC.
The company allocated another $188.3 million toward repurchasing STRC preferred stock, while the remaining $13.6 million was added to its cash balance.
Strategy also reported holding $4.77 billion in cash as of November 8. During the reporting period, it withdrew $21.1 million to cover preferred dividends and disclosed no Bitcoin sales.
Why Some Analysts Believe the Worst Is Over
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes MSCI’s decision may have a limited impact because investors have already had time to position themselves ahead of the announcement.
He expects Strategy shares to continue facing relative weakness as their premium over Bitcoin holdings declines.
Thielen also does not anticipate a meaningful impact on Bitcoin’s overall market. He argued that treasury companies have gradually lost their influence on BTC demand as their valuation premiums have compressed.
According to him, investors are increasingly questioning whether companies that simply accumulate Bitcoin provide any additional value beyond holding the cryptocurrency directly.
Thielen expects passive funds to sell their MSTR positions, but believes other investors will eventually absorb the shares at somewhat lower prices.
He also highlighted that some institutional funds were already holding fewer Strategy shares than their benchmark allocations required, which could reduce the amount of additional selling.
Derin Olenik, an independent Bitcoin analyst, sees greater risks associated with the decision.
Although his estimate of potential selling pressure is broadly in line with JPMorgan’s $2.8 billion projection, he believes the damage to the institutional adoption narrative could be even more significant.
Olenik warned that the exclusion could generate more than $2.8 billion in selling pressure, potentially increasing beyond $11 billion if other index providers adopt similar policies.
He argued that institutional acceptance has become a central part of the investment thesis behind Bitcoin treasury companies, making MSCI’s decision particularly concerning for the sector.
Bitcoin Treasury Companies Face Pressure to Evolve
The MSCI development could accelerate calls for Bitcoin treasury firms to move beyond conventional accumulation strategies.
Thielen believes these companies should increasingly resemble asset managers by putting their Bitcoin reserves to productive use through yield-generating strategies and other investment activities.
He argued that businesses must demonstrate an ability to outperform the broader market rather than relying exclusively on financial engineering and repeated capital raises.
Olenik similarly called for a transition toward what he describes as “Treasury 2.0.”
Under this model, companies would focus on developing Bitcoin infrastructure, expanding network adoption, improving its monetary utility, and building revenue-generating operations around the cryptocurrency.
The broader objective is to transform Bitcoin holdings into productive business assets capable of generating and compounding shareholder value, rather than simply accumulating more BTC and depending on rising market prices.
