Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has rejected a forecast that artificial intelligence could cause Bitcoin to lose more than half of its value over the next two years. Buterin said his existing crypto holdings already leave roughly 90% of his net worth exposed to the opposite outcome.
Bitcoin was trading near $80,000 after reaching a three-month high of $82,500 on September 3. A 50% decline from the $80,000 level would take Bitcoin to around $40,000.
Liron Shapira, a Silicon Valley investor and host of the Doom Debates podcast, has placed the probability of such a crash at 50%. He believes advances in AI could eventually threaten the security and reliability guarantees that underpin investor confidence in Bitcoin.
According to Shapira, more capable AI systems could potentially discover new methods of attacking the technology securing the Bitcoin network. His argument centers on the possibility that AI could weaken Bitcoin’s security assumptions, rather than claiming that its cryptography has already been defeated.
The discussion highlights an important distinction between a technical attack on Bitcoin and the market reaction to fears about one. AI-related risks do not mean Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses have been broken, but they raise questions about how the network would respond if new forms of attack emerged.
Buterin has taken the opposing position. He said he remains confident in the long-term strength of cybersecurity and believes Bitcoin can deal with many network-level problems without requiring a broad consensus among participants.
He also distinguished between attacks targeting Bitcoin’s network infrastructure and a fundamental failure of its cryptographic foundations. Developers, node operators and mining pools could upgrade their software or infrastructure to respond to certain threats. Buterin considers the chances of AI actually breaking Bitcoin’s hashing algorithms or proof-of-work system to be extremely small.
Buterin added that he would be willing to bet against Shapira’s prediction, although he said his current holdings already serve as a much larger wager. With about 90% of his net worth tied to crypto, he argued that he already has substantial financial exposure to his view.
He further noted that the same AI-security debate could extend to Ethereum because both blockchain networks depend on cryptographic assumptions. In a separate discussion, Buterin highlighted progress in succinct proofs and fully homomorphic encryption during 2026.
Ethereum has also placed greater emphasis on long-term security concerns. The network’s roadmap overhaul announced on August 10 reportedly made quantum safety a higher priority.
AI Creates Multiple Bitcoin Risks
Shapira is one of several prominent voices warning about the potential impact of AI on Bitcoin, although the proposed risks differ.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has warned that AI-driven credit stress could trigger a broader financial sell-off and potentially push Bitcoin below $60,000. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has argued that AI could compete with Bitcoin for investment capital, electricity and data-center capacity.
| Figure | Outlook | Risk Identified |
|---|---|---|
| Liron Shapira | Bitcoin could lose more than 50% within two years | AI could weaken the network’s expected security guarantees |
| Vitalik Buterin | Rejects the crash prediction | Network-level threats can be mitigated, while breaking Bitcoin’s core cryptography is unlikely |
| Arthur Hayes | AI could pressure Bitcoin | AI-related credit stress could trigger a market-wide sell-off |
| Peter Schiff | AI could compete with Bitcoin | Competition for capital, electricity and data-center resources |
The arguments point to three different potential threats. Shapira is focused on Bitcoin’s technological security, Hayes on financial-market contagion and Schiff on competition for scarce resources.
None of these scenarios confirms that AI will trigger a Bitcoin crash. They represent different theories about how the rapid development of artificial intelligence could affect the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin Tests Major Resistance
Bitcoin remained below the $80,000-$82,200 resistance zone over the weekend, trading around $79,750 to $80,100 during Saturday’s session.
At the same time, wallets holding at least 100 BTC reportedly accumulated approximately 60,000 BTC in August, while smaller wallets sold a similar amount. The data points to increased accumulation among larger holders but does not resolve the broader AI debate.
The central question is whether advances in artificial intelligence could eventually undermine Bitcoin’s security enough to trigger a major loss of confidence. Under Shapira’s scenario, a decline of more than 50% from roughly $80,000 would place Bitcoin near $40,000.
For now, the two-year forecast remains speculative. Buterin sees Bitcoin’s security architecture as resilient enough to withstand most network-level threats, while Shapira believes increasingly capable AI could eventually challenge assumptions that investors currently take for granted.
