A firmer U.S. dollar and a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh are expected to keep pressure on crypto markets through the summer months.
Bitcoin (BTC) likely has further room to decline before the current bear cycle reaches its conclusion, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen.
Thielen’s outlook is largely tied to the recent strength of the dollar, which has historically acted as a headwind for bitcoin. The shift in Federal Reserve policy has reinforced this view, with markets increasingly weighing the possibility of a rate hike instead of a cut—supporting the dollar while weighing on risk assets.
However, Thielen does not expect the downturn to persist indefinitely.
Three indicators—global liquidity trends, the macroeconomic calendar, and bitcoin’s seasonal patterns—suggest a potential bottom could form between late August and October.
A model tracking changes in global liquidity, which previously flagged a buying opportunity in March and a sell signal in April, now points to late August as the next key turning point. Seasonality also indicates that September has historically been a weak month for bitcoin, often followed by a rebound in October.
This timeline aligns with major macro events, including Federal Reserve meetings in September and October, U.S. midterm elections, and the Treasury’s quarterly refinancing announcement in early November.
Taken together, Thielen expects bitcoin to slip below $60,000 and potentially test $55,000 before establishing a cycle low.
“The takeaway is patience for now, with attention shifting to late August,” he said.
