Bitcoin has held up better than expected despite facing several negative catalysts throughout July, though traders remain cautious as markets await fresh economic data and continue monitoring rate hike risks.
The leading cryptocurrency is ending the month on a relatively strong note, outperforming expectations after navigating a challenging environment.
BTC briefly slipped below $63,000 on Friday, dropping about 3% on the day. However, on a monthly basis, Bitcoin remains positioned for a gain of roughly 7.5%, a solid result considering the number of pressures that have weighed on investor sentiment.
During the month, markets dealt with rising speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise rates, higher bond yields, a reversal in AI-driven trades, and a major security issue involving Coldcard, one of Bitcoin’s most established hardware wallet providers.
Despite these challenges, Bitcoin avoided a major correction and continued holding above previous bear market lows, even as other risk-sensitive markets experienced weaker demand.
Bitcoin Shows Strength After Leverage Flush
Bitfinex analysts said Bitcoin’s resilience can be partly explained by market positioning.
They noted that crypto entered the Fed’s latest decision with much lower leverage than traditional equities because many derivatives traders had already been removed during the late-June selloff, when BTC fell below $58,000 on July 1.
Since then, daily liquidation levels have remained far below the year’s average range of $400 million to $500 million, suggesting that the market has not faced significant forced selling despite continued macro uncertainty.
Bitfinex analysts said crypto markets declined less than highly leveraged equity sectors because much of the forced-selling pressure had already been absorbed.
Coldcard Hack Raises Self-Custody Concerns
The market is also dealing with the aftermath of a major Coldcard exploit that resulted in at least $38 million worth of Bitcoin being stolen.
The incident has not triggered a major price reaction, but it has revived concerns about the security risks associated with self-custody, one of the industry’s key selling points.
Paul Howard, director at trading firm Wincent, said the stolen Bitcoin has not yet been liquidated, but the possibility of future selling could weigh on prices in the near term. He added that the attack highlights the operational risks users face when managing their own crypto assets.
Investors Await Jobs Report and ETF Signals
Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty remains the biggest factor influencing Bitcoin’s next move.
Jeff Anderson, managing partner at STS Digital, said markets may be entering a period of heightened volatility as investors shift between expectations of rate cuts, unchanged policy, or further tightening. He warned that uncertainty could continue pressuring high-beta assets like Bitcoin until the economic outlook becomes clearer.
Bitfinex analysts expect traders to remain cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S. jobs report, which will serve as the next major market catalyst after the Fed meeting.
Rather than focusing on another wave of liquidations, analysts said the market’s attention is likely to turn toward whether spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return once investors gain more confidence about the Fed’s future direction.
They noted that institutional demand becoming more aggressive could provide a key signal for Bitcoin’s next move.
Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, expects August to be a volatile and range-bound period for Bitcoin unless real yields decline or ETF inflows show consistent improvement.
She said the market can handle a neutral Fed stance, but a stronger dollar, rising real yields, and weak ETF demand at the same time could create additional pressure on Bitcoin.
