Crude oil prices surged Monday after fresh U.S.-Iran military action heightened concerns about supply disruptions, while President Donald Trump again described the conflict as a victory.
Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Strengthen
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh traveled together to the G20 gathering in Asheville, North Carolina, over the weekend, potentially signaling alignment on the economic outlook.
The Treasury has recently sought to push longer-dated borrowing costs lower through public messaging. Warsh, however, struck a more hawkish tone Friday, saying inflation still needed to fall further. His remarks triggered a rise in Treasury yields across the curve.
The move continued Monday, with the 30-year Treasury yield climbing 5.2 basis points to 5.26%. The 10-year yield added 4.1 basis points to 4.763%, its highest point in three years.
Markets are also raising their expectations for higher short-term rates. CME FedWatch data put the probability of a rate move at the September meeting at 64%, up from 57% Friday and around 40% before Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
For December 2026, markets were pricing in about a 90% probability of at least one rate hike, while the odds of a total 75-basis-point increase stood near 10%.
Iran Tensions Drive Oil Higher
Oil markets rallied after overnight strikes involving Iran. Trump said Monday that Iran was an “officially failed nation,” pointing to its military, economy and political leadership.
The latest remarks followed renewed fighting and came as oil prices pushed to multi-week highs.
Brent crude jumped 5.9% to $91.18 per barrel, while WTI gained 3.7% to $86.47. WTI futures were more than 3% higher, with the front-month contract around $86.63.
The escalation also revived concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, providing another catalyst for higher crude prices.
Bitcoin remained relatively steady despite the geopolitical shock, trading around $78,400 and roughly 1% higher from midnight levels.
Strategy Adds 4,603 BTC
Strategy resumed bitcoin purchases after a pause dating back to late June. The company acquired 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million, paying an average of $80,318 per coin.
The purchase was funded through about $602.8 million raised from common-stock sales. Strategy also spent $151.8 million buying back STRC preferred shares and directed additional proceeds toward its cash holdings.
The company now owns 845,050 BTC acquired for approximately $63.73 billion, with an average purchase cost of $75,412 per bitcoin.
Strategy shares gained 1.65% in premarket trading while bitcoin remained near $78,400.
Ether’s Chart Turns Bullish
Ether has formed a golden cross on its daily chart, a technical formation often associated with improving long-term momentum.
The signal occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day average. Although traders frequently interpret the pattern as bullish, it is not a guarantee that prices will continue rising.
BUIDL Regains Tokenized Treasury Lead
BlackRock’s BUIDL has moved back into the top spot among tokenized U.S. Treasury products, holding around $2.8 billion, according to Token Terminal. Circle’s USYC is at roughly the same level, leaving the two effectively tied when rounded.
These funds hold short-term U.S. government debt while issuing tokens representing the underlying assets. This allows crypto firms to maintain blockchain-based exposure to yield-generating Treasurys. Securitize manages the tokenization and transfer-agent functions for BUIDL.
BUIDL exceeded $3 billion in assets early last year before falling by more than $1 billion. It later recovered, dropped toward $1.5 billion around mid-2026 and then climbed again through August.
USYC moved in the opposite direction, steadily expanding and overtaking BUIDL earlier in 2026.
The broader tokenized Treasury market has grown by more than 15,000% since 2024 and remains around $15 billion despite the latest crypto downturn. Ondo’s USDY and Franklin Templeton’s iBENJI hold roughly $2.1 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively.
Yen Crosses 160 Per Dollar
Bessent said the latest yen movements remained contained and did not justify coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention.
He had warned previously that disorderly trading in the yen could contribute to higher U.S. interest rates.
Because the yen is commonly used to finance positions in U.S. equities and Treasurys, sharp moves in the currency can influence bond yields and overall financial conditions, with potential consequences for bitcoin and other risk assets.
Bitcoin traded below $78,000 during Asian hours, down less than 1% over 24 hours but still up around 1% over the week.
Solana and Dogecoin fell about 3%, while Hyperliquid and XRP also declined. Ether, BNB, Zcash and Tron remained within roughly 2% of flat.
Solana was still about 8% higher over the week, while Dogecoin was down approximately 10%.
The yen breached 160 against the dollar in Tokyo, putting the currency close to levels where traders are increasingly watching for possible intervention. Some strategists identify 161 as an initial risk point, followed by 162-163.
The dollar strengthened broadly Friday as investors reassessed the outlook for U.S. interest rates following Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks. That repricing had previously contributed to institutional bitcoin ETF outflows during May and June.
As August’s final trading session concludes, investors will be watching month-end bitcoin ETF flows to determine whether the recent eight-day streak of inflows has survived the renewed shift toward higher rates.
